Category Archives: Obama 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Garcetti 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Sees Small Decline as First Russia Indictments Headline News; Kamala Harris Reaches New High; Obama Drops Despite Leading Poll; Garcetti Makes Debut

After seven weeks of drifting up, Donald Trump’s odd saw a small decline as the payout increased from 3.25X to 3.27X.  This drop coincided with the first indictments in the Russia investigation.  It will be interesting to see if it bumps back up as the headlines change to the President’s Asia trip over the next two weeks.

Kamala Harris keeps reaching new highs.  Her payout dropped from 16.4X to 15.4X and she remains in 4th place.  She made news this week by becoming the first Senate Democrat vowing to oppose any government funding bill unless Congress takes action on the DREAMers. Many see this as a 2020 ploy.

Michelle Obama saw a big decline moving from 20.4X to 21.3X. That is a new low for her, but she remains in 6th place.  She was at 12.1X and in 4th place at the end of 2016.  This drop comes despite her leading a recent survey of Democratic primary voters.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti made his debut on the list in 44th place with a payout of 82X.  This came as he announced he would not be running for Governor and as he launched a Non Profit with other mayors called Accelerator for America.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Who are the Top Democratic Candidates

For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline.  This time from 3.31X to 3.35X.  Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since.  He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.

Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)

The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren.  Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X.  She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.

Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections.  Her odds have declined over time however.  She started at 13.7X  and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later.  Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye.  She is currently at 17.6X.

Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat.  He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary.  He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016.  Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.

Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party.  She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year.  Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall.  Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.

Some other top Democrats:

  • Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
  • Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
  • Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March.  She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 736

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated Election Odds: Top 4 Continue to be Steady with Trump, Pence, Warren and Obama

 

There was very little change in the odds this week.  In fact the top four have been the same since I started tracking the new odds two weeks after the elections.

Donald Trump continues to lead at 26.5% and a payout of 2.4 to 1.  The payout has stabilized at 2.4, after starting out at 2.6.

The next three include Mike Pence at 8.8 to 1, Elizabeth Warren at 10.8 to 1, and Michelle Obama at 13.1 to 1.

Cory Booker has been a fairly consistent number 5 with a current payout of 23.7 to 1 and Hillary Clinton has ranged between 11th and her current 6th place at 25 to 1.

Here are the full odds:

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 784