Category Archives: Harris 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds flat, near all time highs; Sanders declines for 9th straight week, remains in 3rd; Buttigieg and Harris make inroads with donors, regain momentum; Klobuchar up prior to possible breakout in debates

Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.03X just a shade lower than his all time high of 2.02X achieved two weeks ago. His odds have been in this area the past 5 weeks and are about 2.5 times more likely than his closest competitor Joe Biden, but slightly lower than the odds of the top five Democrats combined (1.98X) That will probably be the best comparison going forward.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to decline this week from 10.9X to 11.7X. This was the 9th straight week of declines. He was at 6.7X at the beginning of the streak. Amazingly, he has only dropped from 2nd place to 3rd place. Sanders is one of the more polarizing figures in the race, even among Democrats, as this analysis would suggest.

Unlike the last few weeks, the biggest beneficiary from Sanders’ drop was not Elizabeth Warren (who is just slightly behind him at 12.1X). Instead the beneficiaries were Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. Both seem to have their path to the big Democratic donors, and that will give them an advantage in the long campaign. Buttigieg was up from 13.0X to 12.4X, and has been up the last three weeks. He is at his highest odds in 8 weeks. Harris was up from 14.1X to 13.5X. It reversed a trend of dropping or being flat the last 11 weeks.

So who will be the breakout of the upcoming debate. Some think it will be Amy Klobuchar. Her odds were up on the week from 76.5X to 67.9X. That was enough to lift her from 11th place to 10th place. Ironically, she jumped ahead of Cory Booker, the other person mentioned in the article above.

Below is a list of the top 59 candidates with better than 200-1 odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds end a 15 week win streak with slight decline; Warren continues to be hottest candidate as her odds leap over Harris and Buttigieg; Sanders not backing away from “Socialism” tag, continues to be the biggest donor to Warren’s rise; Harris’ odds at 18 months low, drops to 6th place

After 15 weeks in a row of improvements, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline from 2.02X to 2.03X. These are still the third highest odds he has been at behind the last two weeks which were both 2.02X.

The hottest name continues to be Elizabeth Warren, and her odds saw a big leap this week. For the previous 7 weeks, Warren had seen small increases moving from 34.0X on April 20th to 20.3X last week. This week’s odds showed a much larger improvement moving to 12.3X. That allowed her to move to 6th place from 4th place. These are her highest odds since in nearly seven months (since 11/3/2018). Her recent rise has not gone unnoticed by the President and he may be shifting his attacks.

Two longtime front-runners suffered the brunt of the downside from Warren’s rise. Sanders’ odds seem to be the mirror image of Warren’s the past few weeks. that continued this week dropping from 8.97X to 10.9X. That is nearly a 20% drop in one week, and his lowest odds since middle of February. Those were the odds he achieved after initially announcing and raising $6 Million in 24 hours. Sanders has stuck to his guns in embracing the “Socialist” label as other Democrats have run away from it.

The other frontrunner that suffered this week was Kamala Harris. Her odds dropped from 12.2X to 14.1X. These are her lowest odds in over 18 months (12/2/17). She is fighting perception in Iowa that she is looking past their state.

Although this time of the year will see volatility in the top candidates, there’s always interesting “under the radar” movement in odds. This week’s include Hillary Clinton who saw her odds jump from 109X to 103X. She’s reportedly not likely to run but just will not shut the door entirely. The other interesting name who has seen a significant increase for the second week in a row is John Hickenlooper. He improved from 145X to 126X last week, and 115X this week. He is now in 18th place, and has taken strong positions against socialism as his polite twitter battle with Sanders shows.

Below is a list of the top 63 candidates with better than 200-1 odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Abrams 2020, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds flat to last week’s new high; Biden’s jumps Sanders despite attacks from both sides; Warren gaining momentum; Abrams decision not to run for Senate sparks speculation; Bennet enters race

Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.18X, which is their high for this election cycle. Prior to that he had improved for 9 straight weeks. Keep in mind when it’s finally a two person race, and if both candidates are tied, the odds will likely be 1.80X for each candidate.

The hottest candidate once again was Joe Biden, surpassing Bernie Sanders for second place overall. His odds rose from 8.18X to 6.26X. This was not only a new high for him. It was also the high for anyone not named Trump. Biden’s previous high was 7.18X in March (prior to improper touching allegations). It will be interesting to see if Biden can remain on top as he gets attacked from all sides including attacks from the President, attacks from his left, and from other unaffiliated parties.

Prior to Biden this week, the field’s previous high was Kamala Harris at 6.28X in February. Since then the California Democrat has declined to this week’s 11.3X and 4th place overall.

Last week, we talked about Elizabeth Warren possibly reaching a bottom. Her odds improved for a second week in a row improving from 32.0X to 24.7X. This is now the highest she has been in 9 weeks. The “policy” candidate seems to be gaining momentum on her promise to erase $50,000 of student debt.

Stacey Abrams announced she will not run for the Senate in 2020, and that fueled speculation she may be running for a bigger office. Her odds jumped from last week’s 145.9X and 35th place to 90.6X and 13th place, by far the highest she has been.

What’s another week without another Democrat announcing they are running. Michael Bennett made it official, and like many other Democrats that are not in the top tier, his odds dropped on the announcement, for Bennett from 136.1X and 32nd place to 152.6X and 35th place. He is number 22 in the field. One potential candidate for next week is NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. He is currently in 42nd place at 165.5X.

Here are the list of 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot
(last week there were 71):

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