Category Archives: Haley 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Franken 2020, Haley 2020, Schultz 2020, Trump 2020

Trump Steady at the Top; Haley Continues to Increase Profile and Odds; Franken up as He Continues to Attack Cruz; Howard Schultz Rockets up the List

Donald Trump’s odds have been steady the last three weeks after 7 weeks of declines.  Payout for putting money on Trump is exactly what it was last week at 3.45X.  His odds are nearly three times that the next competitor, his VP Mike Pence.

The UN met this week, which naturally raised Nikki Haley’s profile, as well as her odds.   Her payout improved to 46X from 47.5X.  That was enough to move her up from 25th place to 23rd place.

On the Democratic side, the big riser was Al Franken.  He was in Texas and was once again taking shots at Ted Cruz and denying he would run in 2020. His payout improved to 54.5X from 59X.  This is the lowest payout/highest odds he has had.  He moved from 31st place to 29th place.

Every week, it seems a different non politician makes a move.  This week it was time for former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz.  He “sounds like a 2020 presidential candidate” according to the Washington Post.  His payout dropped from 96.5X to 63X.  That rocketed  him from 50th place to 33rd place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 628

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Haley 2020, Kasich 2020, Paul 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Scott 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Speculation about a GOP Primary Challenge Heats Up

Donald Trump continues to be the heavy favorite to win the 2020 elections, although his odds have dropped for the 5th straight week. This week, his payout has increased from 3.2X to 3.3X.  It was at 3.0X just 5 weeks ago.  His probability, at 19%, is still nearly 3 times the his next competitor, Mike Pence.

As his popularity has dropped, there has been speculation that Trump will get a challenge in the Primary.  Who could that challenge come from?  Here the other GOP candidates in the top 35:

Mike Pence: Although Mike Pence is unlikely to challenge Trump in a primary, he remains the 2nd highest from an odds perspective at 8.9X.  This basically signals that he will be the favorite for 2020 if Trump resigns, is impeached, or chooses not to run.  What’s interesting is his odds seem to move in the same direction as Trump’s: He seems to have peaked in the middle of June, which is Trump’s recent high.  At that time his payout was at 8.3X.

Paul Ryan: Ryan is currently 3rd among the Republicans and all the way down at 12th overall.  Like Pence, his success currently seems to hinge on Trump’s.  He peaked in early July at 25.5X and has been dropping  like Trump and Pence.  He is currently at 32.9X.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has been more openly critical than any of the Republicans above him.  Over the last two weeks he has moved from 20th place to 15th place.  He is currently at 41.2X.

Nikki Haley: Haley has probably done the best job in balancing being part of the administration (UN Ambassador) and keeping her distance from Trump.  She has improved over the last two weeks from 24th place to 21st place.  Her payout is currently at 45.5X.

John Kasich: Kasich has been the most consistent in being against some of Trump’s policies, like healthcare, while not attacking Trump in a personal manner.  At this point he would be the most likely to challenge Trump in a primary.  Kasich’s odds have moved more than anybody over the last two weeks with his payout moving from 59.6X to 48.9X.  He is currently in 25th place.

Ted Cruz: Cruz and Kasich were Trump’s last opponents in the primary, and would therefore be expected to be the favorites to be his primary opponents.  Although they are close in odds (Cruz is at 61.7X and in 28th place), Cruz has not moved much the last two weeks (He was in 29th place at 61.7X).

Mitt Romney: Romney has been mostly out of the public spotlight since his failed 2012 run.  His odds have showed little movement over the last year and he is currently in 30th place at 64.3X.

Tim Scott: Scott has just joined the leader board this week in 34th place at 67X.  The African-American GOP Senator came out this week saying Trump has lost his “moral authority”.

Rand Paul:  Paul has held steady.  he had been at 67X for 16 straight weeks until he dropped to 71X this week.  He is currently in 35th place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 703

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Haley 2020, JosephKennedy2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Updated Election Odds: Trump’s Big Lead Continues to Shrink; Sanders and Kennedy up for Dems; Hayley Improves Profile and Odds

The trend has continued of Donald Trump having a large but shrinking lead:  The payout is now up to 3X from 2.9X.  It was at 2.4X pre-inauguration.  The probability dropped from 21.6% to 21.4%.  It was at 26.9% pre-inauguration.

Bernie Sanders continues to stay relevant, with his payout declining from 23X to 22.9X.  That was enough for him to jump into a tie for 6th place with Cory Booker.

Nikki Haley continues to increase her profile through her UN position.  Her payout has dropped from 56.3X to 53.6X. That puts her in 24th place.

Joseph P Kennedy joined the list at 23rd place with a payout of 55X.  This week he moves up to 21st place with a payout of 45.8X.

Here are the full odds:

Follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 626