Category Archives: Haley 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Duckworth 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Pence 2020, Rice S., Trump 2020

Trump sees slight improvement in odds but Biden still leads for 5th straight week; Harris continues her stranglehold on the VP odds while odds for Rice and Duckworth jump; Most swing states continue to lean to Biden, although AZ moves back to tossup tightening up Electoral race

Joe Biden stayed ahead of Donald Trump for a 5th straight week, although his odds saw a small drop from 1.6X to 1.63X. This in turn improved Trump’s odds slightly from 2.56X to 2.55X. The implied edge for Biden decreased from 61.5% to 61.0% still his second highest.

There were interesting movements for Mike Pence and Nikki Haley as their odds skyrocketed. Pence improved from 56.6X to 46.7X, allowing him to jump Clinton for 3rd. Haley improved from 108.8X to 93.5X. She is in 5th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

Kamala Harris continued to be the heavy favorite for VP improving from 2.1X to 2.0X. Two candidates improved their odds as Susan Rice jumped Demings for second place improving from 11.1X to 8.3X. Tammy Duckworth also saw a big improvement from 25.0X to 10.0X allowing her to jump over Bottoms and Warren for 4th place.

Here are the full odds:

There were several state polls in key states this week:

  • Wisconsin Trump +1 and Biden +8. Biden has won 3 of the last 4 polls and the average of the 4 polls is Biden +5. Keeping Wisconsin for Biden.
  • Pennsylvania Biden +5, Biden +6. Biden has won the last 4 by an average of 6. This key state appears to be safe to Biden for now.
  • North Carolina Biden +1, Biden +7. Biden has won the last 4 so we will keep it in his column
  • Arizona Biden +7, Trump +4. Although Biden has won 3 of the last 4, the Trump +4 is enough for us to move the state to a tossup.
  • Florida Biden +5 and tie. Keeping this one for Biden and he wins 3 of the 4 by an average of over 7
  • Michigan Biden +5 and has won the last four by an average of 5
  • Texas Trump +4 keeps the state for Trump

With the move of Arizona to a tossup , we are now forecasting 337 Biden 201 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Biden’s odds nearly double again, reaching new highs; Trump’s odds see a drop, but stay ahead of Biden; Sanders odds lowest in three weeks, passed by a soaring Pence for third place; Odds of Clinton, Haley, and Obama also soar

Joe Biden had more large wins on Super Tuesday II including winning Michigan. As a result, his odds have basically doubled for the second straight week. They have now gone from 8.70X two weeks ago, to 3.99X last week, to 2.12X this week. These are the highest odds for any Democrat this cycle.

Donald Trump’s odds saw a sizable drop, possibly because polls show Biden is a more formidable opponent head to head than Sanders (more on that in a bit), or possibly of the impact of the Corona Virus. After being in a tight range of 1.59X to 1.60X the last five weeks, Trump’s odds dropped to 1.97X, his lowest in three months. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders improved to 1.98X, just shy of Trump. That’s an implied 50.2%/49.8% probability edge to Trump.

Sanders’ disappointing finish on Tuesday dropped his odds from 12.0X to 32.0X. It’s hard to believe just two weeks ago, he was at 3.99X. This is the lowest he has been in over 3 years (Jan 2017).

Mike Pence’s odds more than doubled. Perhaps that’s a hedge on Trump getting sick. Pence’s visibility has also increased tremendously driven by Trump appointing him as the head of the Corona Virus task force. The odds are now at 29.3X, his highest in over a year. These odds actually put him ahead of Bernie Sanders.

There were other jumps in people not running:

  • Hillary Clinton jumped from 71.1X to 39.6X, her highest in 10 weeks
  • Nikki Haley jumped from 242.7X to 116.1X, her highest in 8 weeks
  • Michelle Obama jumped from 178.5X to 116.5X, her highest in 10 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

For the second week we are turning the focus to the state by state polls of Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Sanders. These are starting to show a big differentiation, perhaps due to Biden’s momentum. In the last two weeks, polls have been done in 11 states. In 9 of those 11, Biden does better than Sanders against Trump. The other two are even. The biggest differences:

  • AZ, where two polls show Biden up by 8 pts and 6 pts, while they show Sanders ahead of Trump by 5 in one and Trump ahead by 7 in another.
  • Florida poll shows Trump up over Biden by 2 (statistical tie), but up over Sanders by 6
  • Pennsylvania Biden by 6 over Trump but Sanders only up by 2 (statistical tie)

The impact of those three states leads to a big victory for Biden over Trump (as we stand today) but basically a tossup for Sanders.

Here are the state by state projection based on the polls and the history of those states:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Haley 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds reach new highs as Articles of Impeachment pass the House; Democratic debate results in wins for Biden, Klobuchar, and Sanders and setbacks for Buttigieg and Warren

Trump’s Odds jumped to an all-time high this week with the House passing the Articles of Impeachment. This may be due to the fact that no unexpected revelations came out, and now Trump can look to having the process move to a “homecourt” game in the Senate. The odds rose from 2.00X to 1.86X. Previous high was 1.90X in August 2019. That was reached after Mueller made his testimony to Congress. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved from 49.8% to 52.3% as their collective odds dropped from 1.99X to 2.04X.

Speaking of the Democrats, the day after the Articles of Impeachment were handed down, the Democrats, held their 6th debate with the smallest field so far of 7 candidates. Based on surveys before and after the debate, Joe Biden seemed to come away the winner. The odds seem to reflect this as he had the biggest improvement in odds from 6.7X to 6.2X, his best odds since June.

According to the same survey, Pete Buttigieg did the worst. Every debate seems to have the hot candidate in the cross-hairs of the rest of the field. This time Buttigieg took the incoming fire, and he managed to be the only one who’s net favorability fell, according to the survey. He also had the biggest drop in odds from 10.6X to 14.0X. This dropped him from 4th place to 5th place overall, as Warren, whose odds also slipped from 11.4X to 12.2X, managed to pass him by. These are the lowest odds Buttigieg has had in 7 weeks.

Some other interesting movements:

  • Amy Klobuchar had a good debate and her odds jumped from 58.3X to 55.3X, her best odds since May. This allowed her to jump into 10th place overall.
  • Elizabeth Warren’s odds decreased for the 10th straight week. They dropped this week from 11.4X to 12.2X. This is the lowest she’s been since June.
  • The improvement in Trump odds meant other Republicans saw a big drop. Mike Pence dropped from 44.5X to 54.5X, his highest since the end of September.
  • Nikki Haley was the other Republican to see a drop from 52.5X to 71.4X, which is her lowest since the same week as Pence.
  • Tulsi Gabbard, who did not qualify for the debate, saw her odds drop from 75.1X to 94.6X. She was the only Democrat not to vote for the impeachment. She voted “Present”.

Here is an odds scoreboard of how the odds changed due to the debate:

A trend of the top 5 candidates:

Odds of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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