Joe Biden stayed ahead of Donald Trump for a 5th straight week, although his odds saw a small drop from 1.6X to 1.63X. This in turn improved Trump’s odds slightly from 2.56X to 2.55X. The implied edge for Biden decreased from 61.5% to 61.0% still his second highest.
There were interesting movements for Mike Pence and Nikki Haley as their odds skyrocketed. Pence improved from 56.6X to 46.7X, allowing him to jump Clinton for 3rd. Haley improved from 108.8X to 93.5X. She is in 5th place overall.
Here are the full odds:
Kamala Harris continued to be the heavy favorite for VP improving from 2.1X to 2.0X. Two candidates improved their odds as Susan Rice jumped Demings for second place improving from 11.1X to 8.3X. Tammy Duckworth also saw a big improvement from 25.0X to 10.0X allowing her to jump over Bottoms and Warren for 4th place.
Here are the full odds:
There were several state polls in key states this week:
Wisconsin Trump +1 and Biden +8. Biden has won 3 of the last 4 polls and the average of the 4 polls is Biden +5. Keeping Wisconsin for Biden.
Pennsylvania Biden +5, Biden +6. Biden has won the last 4 by an average of 6. This key state appears to be safe to Biden for now.
North Carolina Biden +1, Biden +7. Biden has won the last 4 so we will keep it in his column
Arizona Biden +7, Trump +4. Although Biden has won 3 of the last 4, the Trump +4 is enough for us to move the state to a tossup.
Florida Biden +5 and tie. Keeping this one for Biden and he wins 3 of the 4 by an average of over 7
Michigan Biden +5 and has won the last four by an average of 5
Texas Trump +4 keeps the state for Trump
With the move of Arizona to a tossup , we are now forecasting 337 Biden 201 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:
For a second straight week, Joe Biden has widened his lead over Donald Trump and reached a new high. Biden’s odds improved from 1.80X to 1.76X, improving for a 4th straight week. His odds were at 2.26X prior to that streak. Biden’s odds moving up is a function of Donald Trump’s odds dropping. His odds have dropped the last four weeks from 1.91X to 2.19X last week to 2.26X this week, his lowest since December. The President will try to reverse that trend as he restarts his rallies in Tulsa tonight. The implied head to head advantage for Biden is now at 56.2%, up from last week’s 54.8%.
Here are the full odds:
Kamala Harris continues to improve at the top of the VP list. She is now not only the favorite, but the likely VP nominee as her odds move above 50% from 2.2X to 1.9X. The other big improvement came from Val Demings who has worked her way up from 25.0X when she made her debut on 5/16 to the current 5.3X. Big drops came from Atlanta mayor Bottoms whose odds went from 16.7X to 40.0X and Amy Klobuchar who withdrew from consideration and dropped from 100X to 200X. Prior to Floyd’s death, Klobuchar was considered a front-runner at 4.8X (second place).
Here are the full odds:
There was a long list of state polls released this week. Here are the one that impact some of the swing states:
Iowa Trump +1. Keeping Iowa in the Trunp column but last two polls suggest it’s more of a tossup
Michigan Biden +13, Biden +16, Biden +2. The +2 seems to be an outlier and at least for now Biden seems to be in control of Michigan
Florida Biden +11, Biden +7 consistent with recent polls of this very important state
Wisconsin Biden +4. Biden has led 3 of last 4 polls in this state with the fourth being a tie. Moving state to Biden.
Arizona Biden +1, tighter than other polls, but Biden still has 3 of the last 4. State could be close to a tossup.
North Carolina Biden +2, Trump +3. One for each shows why this state is a tossup
Pennsylvania Biden +3. Biden has 3 of the last 4 in this state with two of them by a wide margin (6 and 8)
New Hampshire Biden +7 keeping it in Biden’s column
With the move of Wisconsin to Biden, we are now forecasting 335 Biden 203 Trump. Details by state below:
A bad week for Donald Trump finally resulted in Joe Biden overtaking him. With the focus on the George Floyd protests, Trump’s approval rating dropped to its lowest level since November 2019 (time of Ukraine call testimony). His odds dropped from 1.98X to 2.11X, his lowest since beginning of December. Biden’s odds improved from 2.06X to 1.90X, and all time high for him. Trump’s all time high was 1.59X back near the end of February. The implied odds head to head are now 52.6% Biden and 47.4% Trump.
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, the likelihood Biden would pick an African American woman as his VP continued to increase. Kamala Harris reached a new high at 2.5X. Val Demings improved again from 7.7X to 5.9X. Susan Rice made her debut at 20.0X. The biggest drop came from the only non African American near the top in Elizabeth Warren. He odds worsened from 7.7X to 12.5X. Out of the top 6 candidates, 5 of them are African American women.
Here are the full odds:
Many polls came out this past week. Some of the more important ones:
Texas Trump +1: If this state turns for the Democrats the race is all but over. Still keeping this in Trump’s column
Ohio Biden +2: Biden gets 2 of the last 3 polls in that state but keeping it as a tossup for now
3 North Carolina polls: Biden +4, Biden +1, Trump +3. Keeping this as a tossup as well
Arizona Biden + 4 and Trump +1; Previous 3 polls to this one were for Biden. Keeping state for Biden for now
Wisconsin Biden +9 and tie; Both polls seem extreme. Previous 3 polls were for Biden but by a small margin. Keeping tossup for now but definitely leaning Biden.
Pennsylvania Trump +4; Previous 3 polls were Biden by an average of +7. Keeping this to Biden for now. Will move to tossup if next poll goes to Trump
Florida Biden +3. That is five in a row for Biden in Florida which is huge. Keeping to Biden for now.
We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:
