Category Archives: Cuban 2020

Tump’s odds remain at all time high; Biden leads Trump in key states, pushing his odds to a new high; Buttigieg continue to breakout; Warren hottest name at expense of Sanders; Gabbard, Hickenlooper, Cuban see bounces

Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week and remained at their all time high of 2.02X. The odds have now been at a new high or tied for a new high for the last 8 weeks.

After a one week decline, Joe Biden’s odds resumed their upward moves and reached another new high at 5.19X. They were at 5.61X the previous week and 5.57X two weeks ago, the all time high at that point. This as several polls show Biden would have a significant lead over Trump in head to head match-ups in key states like Michigan.

Pete Buttigieg continues to be the breakout of the election cycle. He improved on the week from 15.5X to 13.8X. He is below his all time high however reached near the end of April of 11.1X. He is currently in 5th place.

Just behind Buttigieg is the hottest recent name, Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been up for 7 straight weeks and improved this week from 21.5X to 20.3X. It’s clear that Sanders and Warren are fighting for the same voter as Sanders has been down those same 7 weeks. (Sanders has gone from 6.97X to 8.97 while Warren has gone from 32X to 20.3X)

Other names that showed life this week were Tulsi Gabbard (up from 56.3X to 53.3X, a 9 week high), John Hickenlooper (up from 145.3X to 125.6X, and from 28th place to 19th place, a 6 week high), and Mark Cuban (196.2X to 134.3X and 60th place to 23rd place). Cuban’s change is interesting as there was no recent news of him running and quite a few sites upgraded his odds from around 150X to around 70X)

Below is the list of the 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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Trump’s Odds See a Small Improvement; Poll Showing Cuban Ahead of Trump in Texas Improves his Odds; Cruz’s Odds Improve on Speculation he May Primary Trump; LA Mayor Garcetti Admits Considering a Run

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement with the payout moving from 3.30X to 3.28X, exactly where it was two weeks ago.  It has been between 3.25X and 3.30X for the last 10 weeks and it’s little under the combined odds of his next four competitors combined.

Mark Cuban saw a slight bump from a poll released showing he leads Trump head to head in Texas for President. The payout for putting money on Cuban improved from 55.9X to 54.3X.  That is the best he has been since July.  He is in 29th place overall.

Close to Cuban’s odds are the odds for Ted Cruz.  His payout improved from 62.0X to 60.5X which is good enough for 32nd place.  He’s thought to be one of the most likely Republicans to primary Trump should Trump be hurt by the midterms or should the Russia probe result in anything substantial.

There is not a lack of Democratic candidates that seem to be popping up in California.  The flavor of the week this week is Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti.  His payout improved from 70.5X to 63.0X.  That was enough to move him from 38th place to 34th place.  That is the highest he has been and came on the heels of Garcetti admitting he is considering a run to Univision.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 764

Updated 2020 Odds: Trump Continues Big Lead; Andrew Cuomo and Paul Ryan Jump into Top 10

11 new names were added to the odds to get to 39 in total.  Mathematically, this addition caused the odds for most candidates to drop (total needs to be 100%). For example, Donald Trump continues to lead but dropped from 30.0% to 26.5%.  He would have been flat without the additions.

Trump has higher odds than the next four competitors combined: Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and Cory Booker.

There were two new entries into the top 10.  Andrew Cuomo, the governor of NY, moves from 9th to 7th place.  Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, moves from 12th place to 10th place.

A few of the big names that got added this week were:

  • Kamala Harris, who just got elected to the Senate out of CA in 16th place
  • Kirsten Gillibrand, the Senator from NY in 17th place
  • Mark Cuban, the billionaire businessman in 20th place
  • Mitt Romney, who may be named Secretary of State, in 23rd place

Here are the full odds:

election-odds-11-26-2016

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 842