Category Archives: Clinton 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Democratic debate odds movement: Warren reaches a new high, Donors losing confidence in Kamala Harris, and Biden stable; Trump’s odds see another small decline; Clinton’s odds jump 30% to highest in 6 months

Donald Trump’s odds continued their recent trend of small declines as they dropped from 2.01X to 2.03X. They have now been flat or lower to the prior week for six straight weeks and are at their lowest point since the end of June. Trump’s odds against the top 5 opponents remained flat at 48%, as the top 5 combined Democrats also saw a slight drop from 1.86X to 1.87X.

The biggest winner of the debate this week and all of the debates in general seems to be Elizabeth Warren who seems to be the one shaping the direction the primary and debates move towards. Her odds improved this week from 5.5X to 5.0X, not only an all time high for her, but also an all time high for any Democratic candidate. (Previous was Biden at 5.19X in June). She has improved after every single debate and has moved up from 12.1X prior to the start of the debates, the biggest improvement of any candidate.

The biggest loser this debate was Kamala Harris. She saw the biggest improvement after the first debate (improving from 14X to 8X), but saw a big drop after the second debate (6.3X to 8.0X) and this week after the third debate (14X to 19X). Her debate performance is beginning to hurt her with big donors.

The best way to describe Biden’s odds post this debate is “stable”. He dropped slightly from 6.7X to 6.8X. Biden had a horrible first debate, rebounded in the second, and seems to have solidified himself as the center-left candidate. This third debate had its share of bad headlines for Biden mostly related to age with a record player comment, a jab by Castro about his memory, and his teeth staying in his mouth.

The one unexpected movement in odds was for Hillary Clinton. Her odds jumped from 90.0X to 69.5X. These are her highest odds since March 2019 when she announced she would not be running. The interesting thing is she seems to be getting active in 2020 by advising Democratic odds front runner Elizabeth Warren.

Here are the odds of the candidate with better than 200 to 1 odds as well as a breakdown of how odds have shifted as a result of the debates.

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2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds end a 15 week win streak with slight decline; Warren continues to be hottest candidate as her odds leap over Harris and Buttigieg; Sanders not backing away from “Socialism” tag, continues to be the biggest donor to Warren’s rise; Harris’ odds at 18 months low, drops to 6th place

After 15 weeks in a row of improvements, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline from 2.02X to 2.03X. These are still the third highest odds he has been at behind the last two weeks which were both 2.02X.

The hottest name continues to be Elizabeth Warren, and her odds saw a big leap this week. For the previous 7 weeks, Warren had seen small increases moving from 34.0X on April 20th to 20.3X last week. This week’s odds showed a much larger improvement moving to 12.3X. That allowed her to move to 6th place from 4th place. These are her highest odds since in nearly seven months (since 11/3/2018). Her recent rise has not gone unnoticed by the President and he may be shifting his attacks.

Two longtime front-runners suffered the brunt of the downside from Warren’s rise. Sanders’ odds seem to be the mirror image of Warren’s the past few weeks. that continued this week dropping from 8.97X to 10.9X. That is nearly a 20% drop in one week, and his lowest odds since middle of February. Those were the odds he achieved after initially announcing and raising $6 Million in 24 hours. Sanders has stuck to his guns in embracing the “Socialist” label as other Democrats have run away from it.

The other frontrunner that suffered this week was Kamala Harris. Her odds dropped from 12.2X to 14.1X. These are her lowest odds in over 18 months (12/2/17). She is fighting perception in Iowa that she is looking past their state.

Although this time of the year will see volatility in the top candidates, there’s always interesting “under the radar” movement in odds. This week’s include Hillary Clinton who saw her odds jump from 109X to 103X. She’s reportedly not likely to run but just will not shut the door entirely. The other interesting name who has seen a significant increase for the second week in a row is John Hickenlooper. He improved from 145X to 126X last week, and 115X this week. He is now in 18th place, and has taken strong positions against socialism as his polite twitter battle with Sanders shows.

Below is a list of the top 63 candidates with better than 200-1 odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Brown 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Merkley 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized

Trump’s odds improve to best in 9 weeks; Sanders remains hot name, reaches new high; Hickenlooper officially announces, quickly raises money; Four high profile candidates officially out

Trump’s odds improved from 2.91X to 2.86X. Although this may not seem like a big improvement, it’s the best odds he has had in 9 weeks. To keep things in perspective, his high for the cycle is 2.31X in August 2018.

Bernie Sanders is currently the hot candidate on the left. He jumped up from 9.18X to 7.06X, a new high for him. This was enough to have him jump the yet undecided Joe Biden (8.39X) for 3rd place. He is just behind Kamala Harris (6.73X) for the Democratic lead. Sanders signed the “Democratic Loyalty Pledge” this week.

John Hickenlooper officially announced his candidacy on Monday and his odds jumped from 73.6X to 66.4X. That was enough for him tomove from 21st place to 14th place. He became the fourth Democrat to raise over $1 million within hours of his announcement.

A few top names officially announced they are NOT running:

Here are the full odds:

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