Category Archives: Clinton 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Sanders 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see a small drop; Sanders’ odds tank on news of heart attack; Pete Buttigieg’s odds see a sign of life, jump a slumping Kamala Harris; Clinton’s odd’s increase for fourth straight week

Trump’s Odds saw a small drop this week from 2.17X to 2.20X. This was the second drop in a row after the start of the impeachment inquiry. These are his lowest odds in nearly 6 months. His odds against the top 5 Democrats also decreased slightly from 44.9% to 44.7%, as their combined odds dropped by a lower amount than Trump’s (from 1.77X to 1.78X).

On the Democratic side, this was the first week in the past couple of months where Warren’s odds did not see a significant pickup. They rose from 3.50X to 3.45X, yet another new high.

The big mover for the Democrats was Bernie Sanders on news he was hospitalized because of a heart attack. His odds dropped from 14.3X to 17.9X, his lowest odds since end of January.

The biggest mover among the top candidates was Pete Buttigieg, whose odds showed signs of life for the first time in almost 4 months. He jumped from 31.1X to 26.6X. These are his highest odds in 6 weeks and allowed him to jump over a slumping Kamala Harris. Buttigieg is “flush with cash” and looking to make his mark in Iowa. Harris’ odds dropped from 26.4X to 27.9X, her lowest since July 2017.

For the second straight week, “non candidates” saw big jumps:

Hillary Clinton had her 4th straight week of jumps from 49.9X to 39.5X. Unlike after the first jump, where there was zero news on her potential candidacy, we are now starting to see some chatter like this article suggesting she may be the beneficiary of Sanders potentially leaving the race.

The other increases, much like last week, came from Republicans as a hedge to the potential impeachment:

Here are the candidates with a better than 200 to 1 chance as well as a trend of the leaders

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Ryan 2020, Sanders 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see moderate drop on start of impeachment inquiry, giving life to odds of Republicans who are not running; Warren reaches another new high, putting space between her and other Dems; Clinton’s odds continue to improve on no news

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 2.02X to 2.17X this week with the opening of the impeachment inquiry driven by the Ukraine whistle blower. That is about a 7% drop, but putting things in perspective, that is where he was in May of 2019. His odds against the top 5 Democrats declined from last week’s 48.5% to this week’s 44.7% as their combined odds improved from 1.90X to 1.75X.

Trump’s odds resulted in life for some Republican alternatives:

  • Mike Pence improved from 86.5X to 60.9X and he rose from 12th to 9th
  • Nikki Haley improved from 123X to 74X and she moved from 14th to 10th
  • Mitt Romney improved from 146X to 138X and he moved from 17th to 15th
  • John Kasich improved from 162X to 157X and he moved from 20th to 19th
  • Paul Ryan improved from 217X to 203X and he moved from 48th to 38th
  • Ben Sasse improved from 224X to 210X and he moved from 49th to 42nd

On the Democratic side, Elizabeth Warren continued to put distance between her and the field. Her odds reached another new Democratic high rising from 4.89X to 3.50X. 4 out of her 5 closest competitors saw significant decreases:

  • Biden a 10% drop from 6.88X to 7.66X a 9 week low
  • Sanders a 20% drop from 11.5X to 14.3X a 9 week low
  • Kamala Harris 13% drop from 23.1X to 26.4X, a 2+ year low
  • Pete Buttigieg 7% drop from 29.1X to 31.1X, a 6 months low

For the third straight week, Hillary Clinton’s odds have improved, this week from 53.6X to 49.9X. That ranks her as the 7th place Democrat. Oddly centrists and those to the far right are in agreement in that they would both love to see her run.

Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the leaders:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds see slight bump ending streak; Warren continues to be hottest name, becoming target of rivals; Harris keeps dropping, is all in on Iowa; Money being bet on Clinton keeps pushing up odds

Donald Trump’s odds rose slightly for the first time in seven weeks. They are now at 2.02X compared to last week’s 2.03X. All time high is 1.90X at the start of August (prior to the 6 week streak). His odds against the top 5 Democratic candidates also rose from 48.1% to 48.5% partly from his improvement and partly from a decrease in their combined odds which worsened from 1.87X to 1.90X.

The hottest candidate continued to be Elizabeth Warren. She reached another new high at 4.89X up from 5.05X. She has now been up in 21 of the last 22 weeks. She was in 8th place at 34.0X just before the start of the streak at the end of April. Even though Warren has been the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the last 6 weeks (odds acting as leading indicator), she is finally starting to get treated like it by her pears, and that’s not necessarily a good thing as other 2020 rivals will now start taking their shots to unseat her.

The coldest name remained Kamala Harris. She dropped from 18.9X to 23.1X. She peaked in the middle of July at 5.57X and has seen the bottom drop out of her odds. She is now reportedly running a new “Iowa-or-bust” strategy.

This week’s drop by Harris allowed Andrew Yang to jump into 5th place overall. He improved from 22.9X to 21.9X. Here’s a quick interview where Yang predicts the nickname Trump will give him.

For the second straight week, the odds for Hillary Clinton have moved without any news. The explanation is money being put on her as this article suggests. Two weeks ago she sat at 90X and in 12th place. Since then her odds jumped to 70X and 9th place last week, and 54X and 8th place this week (jumping Cory Booker). This is the highest she has been in nearly 2.5 years!

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

Here is a trend of the top candidates:

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