There was very little change in the odds this week. In fact the top four have been the same since I started tracking the new odds two weeks after the elections.
Donald Trump continues to lead at 26.5% and a payout of 2.4 to 1. The payout has stabilized at 2.4, after starting out at 2.6.
The next three include Mike Pence at 8.8 to 1, Elizabeth Warren at 10.8 to 1, and Michelle Obama at 13.1 to 1.
Cory Booker has been a fairly consistent number 5 with a current payout of 23.7 to 1 and Hillary Clinton has ranged between 11th and her current 6th place at 25 to 1.
Donald Trump maintained his healthy lead coming in at a probability of 27.2% while the next five candidates combined were at 25.8%. Currently the average payout for betting on Trump is 2.6 to 1.
There was no movement in the top 6 candidates although Elizabeth Warren, who is in 3rd behind Mike Pence, improved her probabilty from 6.0% to 6.3%. Every $1 bet her could potentially yield $11.1.
Hillary Clinton moved from 9th place to 7th place, the highest she has been. Her payout is at 25.7 to 1.
The betting odds overall got a bit more competitive between the different oddsmakers as evidenced by Trump’s payout moving from an average of 2.5 to 1 last week to 2.6 to 1. That should have meant his probability (as computed by combining with all other payouts) should have decreased. Instead it increased from 26.6% to 27.2%.
The top 6 remained unchanged with Donald Trump having higher odds than the next five candidates combined. Donald Trump came in at 26.5% probability which was flat to last week. He was followed by Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, and Tim Kaine. All five had a small decrease in odds as more names got added to the list.
Hillary Clinton was the biggest mover as she improved from 11th place to 8th place.
The big falls came from fellow Democrats Andrew Cuomo who went from 7th place to 10th place and Bernie Sanders who dropped from 9th place to 11th place.
Three additions came in at the same odds tied for 23rd place:
