Category Archives: Biden 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds reach a new high on eve of Senate trial; Biden’s odds improve as friction between Warren and Sanders increases; Bloomberg odds climb along with him catching Trump’s attention

Donald Trump’s Odds continued climbing on the eve of the Senate Impeachment trial, jumping this week from 1.82X to 1.72X. another new high, the third in a row. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved to 54.3% over last week’s 52.1% as their combined odds dropped from 1.98X to 2.05X.

The Democrats held their 7th debate, and based on the odds, the person that benefited the most is Joe Biden. It seems Democrats that were betting on him imploding are coming to grips he will not. His odds improved from 5.79X to 5.60X, his second highest odds since July (highest two weeks ago at 5.51X)

The main story before and during the debate is the friction between Sanders and Warren. The combination of the debate and the controversy had very little impact on Sanders’ odds. He had a small drop from 6.41X (his high for this cycle) to 6.47X. Warren on the other hand continued to drop, this week from 17.3X to 20.5X. her lowest since June.

Warren wasn’t the only Democrat to see a big drop on the week. Buttigieg dropped from 21.5X to 31.2X, his lowest since March 2019. Amy Klobuchar dropped from 67.3X to 82.7X, her lowest in the last 9 weeks.

Michael Bloomberg didn’t participate in the debate, but the fact that he’s now on Trump’s radar speaks to the potential of his candidacy being problematic to Trump. His odds improved from 13.8X to 13.4X another new high.

Below are how the odds changed for the debate participants, a trend of the top candidates, and the overall odds of the top 25:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds reach another new high; Bernie Sanders continues hot streak and is within striking distance of Biden; Bloomberg’s ad spending paying off as he jumps Warren and Buttigieg

Donald Trump’s odds reached another new high with an improvement from 1.85X to 1.82X. Over the last 7 weeks, his odds have improved from 2.27X to 1.82X, a 25% improvement. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved slightly from 51.7% to 52.1% as the Democrats’ combined odds remained flat to last week at 1.98X.

Bernie Sanders continued to be the hottest name this week improving from 7.66X to 6.41X. This is now a new high for the Senator, beating a previous high of 6.74 reached in April 2019. Sanders currently holds the lead in a new Iowa poll. He is now within striking distance of Joe Biden who saw a drop this week from 5.51X to 5.79X.

The biggest jump on the week belonged to Michael Bloomberg. He has been spending millions on ads, and it’s starting to pay off in the polls. Bloomberg’s odds improved from 17.6X to 13.8X, a new high. Bloomberg’s improvement, combined with another bad week from both Elizabeth Warren (she dropped from 13.0X to 17.3X) and Pete Buttigieg (he dropped from 16.9X to 21.5X), allowed him to jump from 5th into 3rd place for the Democrats.

Here are the odds of the top 25 candidates and a trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Small odds improvement results in another new high for Trump; Biden strengthens lead while Sanders continues hot streak; Warren’s slowing momentum reflected in fundraising; Buttigieg’s odds continue downward trend with attacks from his left and right

Donald Trump’s odds had a small move up this week but that helped him reach another new high. Trump’s odds improved from 1.88X to 1.85X. His previous high was 1.86X reached two weeks ago. Interestingly, his odds against the top 5 Democrats decreased a bit from 52.0% to 51.7%, as the Democratic odds consolidated to the top. The odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 2.03X to 1.98X.

The top two Democrats continued their hot streak. Joe Biden has recently focused on Iowa and that seems to be helping his fortunes. His odds improved from last week’s 5.98X to 5.51X. These are his highest odds in over 6 months. His odds have now improved in 9 of the last 11 weeks.

Bernie Sanders continued his post heart attack momentum and had a blowout fundraising quarter. His odds for the week improved from 8.83X to 7.66X. He has now improved for 12 weeks in a row and he now has his highest odds since the middle of May 2019.

Just as Biden and Bernie continued to improve, rivals Warren and Buttigieg continued their recent declines. Warren raised less money in Q4 than in Q3 and only two thirds of what Sanders raised. Her odds for the week dropped from 12.2X to 13.0X. That is 12 straight weeks of declines (same number of weeks as Bernie’s improvements). These are her lowest odds since the middle of June.

Pete Buttigieg’s rise in October and November made him a target for both other Democrats and Trump over the last month. Warren and Sanders supporters pointed out his relationship with the 1%, while the President began accusing him of being a “Pretend Christian”. Despite Buttigieg’s strong fundraising (ahead of Biden), these attacks from both sides seem to be having a negative impact on his odds. He dropped this week from 15.3X to 16.9X. This is his fifth drop in a row and his lowest point in 11 weeks.

A couple of disconnects between odds and news occurred this week for Bloomberg and Yang.

Michael Bloomberg has spent a fortune on advertising and that is having an impact. A recent poll showed him tied for third with Warren. His odds however have dropped in recent weeks from 14.8X to begin December to the current 17.6X.

Andrew Yang had an impressive grassroots fundraising effort in Q4, but his odds dropped from 15.7X to 17.6X, his lowest in 6 weeks.

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds for anyone with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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