Last week Trump’s odd saw a big drop which was a result of the appointment of a Russia special prosecutor. The odds rebounded this week as the President made his international debut. Trump’s probability improved from 19.4% to 20.7% which is back to where it was at the beginning of the month. His payout dropped from 3.3X to 3.0X, again where it was at the beginning of the month.
The big mover for the Democrats was Joe Biden. The former VP jumped from 8th place to 5th place as his schedule “fueled 2020 speculation”. His average payout dropped from 25.7X to 21.5X. This is the highest he has been since the odds started post election. At that time he was in 15th place.
A large part of Biden’s jump came at the expense of Hillary Clinton. Clinton increased her profile a few weeks back when she was in 5th place. Since then she has dropped to 6th place last week and to 8th place this week. Her payout has increased from an average of 22.8X to 24.4X. That is the highest her payout has been since January when it was at 25.0X.
The hottest name of the last two weeks has been former wrestler and current actor Dwayne Johnson. Two weeks ago he was in 41st place. His Tonight Show appearance fueled speculation last week and he jumped to 24th place. This continued this week as he jumped to 16th place. $1 bet on him a few weeks back would have resulted in $100 had he won. That is now down to just 36.4X this week, from last week’s 53.2X.
Donald Trump’s odds continued their slow decline, moving from 20.7% to 20.5%, his lowest since the election. His payout increases from 3.0X to 3.1X. He still has as much probability as the next four candidates.
Hillary Clinton lost her bump from last week when she “resurfaced” in the media. She drops to 6th place falling behind Cory Booker. Her payout increased from 22.0x to 22.8X, the highest payout (or lowest probability) since the beginning of January.
The drop with Clinton seemed to give another well known Democrat, Joe Biden, a bump. He hops over Paul Ryan for 8th place. His payout drops from 28.5X to 26.3X. This is the lowest payout all year.
The hottest name continues to be Mark Zuckerberg. He moves from 13th place to 11th place. His payout drops from 33.9X to 32.1X. Zuckerberg has been up in 10 of the last 13 weeks. He continues to move up since he made his debut in January in 50th place at a payout of 107X.
Donald Trump continued to dominate the odds having as much probability as the next six candidates combined. The payoff for placing a bet on Trump remained the same at 2.4X.
Biggest Movers up:
Bernie Sanders: 11th place from 18th as payoff dropped from 33.9x to 28.3x
Nikki Haley: 31st place to 20th place as payoff dropped from 77.3X to 40.7X
Biggest Movers down:
Tim Kaine: 13th place from 8th place as payoff increased from 22.6x to 29.6x
Joe Biden: 14th place from 10th place as payoff increased from 23.1x to 30.0x
Marco Rubio: 21st place from 15th place as payoff increased from 30.0x to 41.4x
Debuts:
Sherrod Brown: D Senator from OH at 16th place with 34.0X
Tulsi Gabbard: D Rep from HI at 22nd place with 51.0X
Leonardo DiCaprio: Actor 36th place with 81.0X
Sarah Palin: former R Gov of AK 40th place with 101X
