Category Archives: Biden 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Gabbard 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized

Trump’s odds continue slow decline, Biden’s odds improve with win in Iowa Caucus poll, Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar join the top 10

Donald Trump’s Odds continued their slow decline and are at their lowest since June.  This week marked his 5th straight week of declines moving from 2.65X to 2.67X.  This week had more than usual list of bad headlines for the President including large stock market declines, his Defense Secretary resigning, and a government shutdown over the Wall. His odds were at 2.43X on 11/10 when the declines began. His gap vs. second place (currently Beto O’ Rourke) is now at 2.9X, which is the lowest in over a year. 

Joe Biden won a poll of likely Democrat Iowa Caucus goers last week (32%) followed by Sanders (19%), O’Rourke (11%), Warren (8%), and Harris (5%).  His odds jumped from 16.8X to 15.5X.  These are his best odds in over three months. He remains 4th place overall.

Tulsi Gabbard continues to eye a White House run.  Her odds improved from 35.9X to 33.2X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 into 9th place.  This is only her second visit into the top 10.  The last was 7 weeks ago and only lasted a week.  That came as reports spread about her approaching staffers about a run.

Amy Klobuchar’s public profile continues to grow, this week through an interview with the New Yorker. The odds moved from 36.0X to 33.3X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 as well from 12th place. This is her first visit into the top 10.

Below are the full odds:

 

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Lowest in 6 Months; O’Rourke Close to Taking 2nd Place; Biden “Most Qualified” for President; Bloomberg Meets with Iowa Democrats

Donald Trump’s odds dropped for the fourth straight week moving from 2.56X to 2.61X.  These are his lowest odds in 6 months.  He is still higher than his lowest odds of this cycle which were at 3.46X  in September 2017.

The hottest name continues to be Beto O’Rourke.  His odds rose once again, this time from 9.37X to 8.22X.  He is very close to passing Kamala Harris for second place overall.  Kamala Harris is at 7.86X, and has been improving each week, but not at the pace of O’Rourke.  O’Rourke landed a big Obama fundraiser this week. 

Joe Biden is “the most qualified person in the country to be president”……this according to Joe Biden. His odds jumped from 19.3X to 16.9X. This was enough to jump Elizabeth Warren for 4th place overall.  These are his highest odds in 3 months.

Michael Bloomberg continues to take small steps that signal he’s running.  This week, he met privately with top Iowa Democrats. His odds improved once again, this time from 32.6X to 30.2X.  That was enough to move him to 8th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Reflection on First 18 Months of 2020 Election Cycle: How Have the Odds Shifted at the Top?

We are 18 months post the 2016 Election.  How have the odds at the top changed?

At the very top, Donald Trump has maintained a giant lead throughout.  He was at 2.6 to 1 in December, started dropping immediately and bottomed at 3.5 to 1 in September 2017, but has rebounded to his current 2.7X.  Although he has the most likely odds, they are still well under 50%.

Mike Pence was the number 2 candidate in December, most of those odds revolved around speculation of either Trump not finishing his term or not running in 2020.  As time has gone on, those odds have drifted down.  His odds have dropped from 9.5X in December to the current 15.5X. As a result he has dropped from 2nd place to the current 6th place.

Elizabeth Warren started as the Democratic favorite.  Much like 2016, Warren had many on the left believing it was her time while she gave no indication of running.  She started out at 11.1 to 1 odds.  She then stated she would run for the Senate and finish out her term if she wins. That would indicate no 2020 run.  Her odds dropped as a result to 14.9 to 1, but she still remains near the top in 5th place overall.

Michelle Obama began in 4th place at 13.7 to 1.  The former First Lady had a high favorability rating and name recognition.  She has consistently stated she is not running and as a result has dropped to 10th place overall and odds at 31.3X.

Cory Booker began in 5th place at 19.6 to 1. While most speculate that he will still run, he has been overshadowed as a top tier Democratic candidate by Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

Bernie Sanders was in 14th place in December at 32.1X.  Most believed he would not run in 2020, perhaps due to age or for talk of the Democrats looking for new blood at the top.  Instead, Sanders has managed to stay relevant and moved up to be the top contender as of right now for the Democratic nomination.  He has the experience and infrastructure of a campaign and has seen his odds improve to 11.4X, nearly tripling over the last three months.

Kamala Harris is the biggest mover of all.  The freshman Senator from CA did not have a national profile back in Dec 16.  She was in 15th place with odds of 34.8 to 1.  Over the past 18 months she has elevated her national profile and even reached second place overall back in March.  She is currently in 3rd place at 12.1X.

Joe Biden is the other big riser over the last 18 months.  Much like Sanders, Biden was discounted due to age and the Democrats wanting a fresh face for 2020. He was in 10th place in Dec 2017 at 26.8 to 1. Despite not holding an office, Biden has managed to keep his name in the news.  He has taken on President Trump at every opportunity and refuses to rule out running in 2020. He is currently in 4th place overall at 14.6X.

Here’s the top 5 then and now as well as the overall current leaderboard:

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