Category Archives: Biden 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue to inch up setting new highs; Biden sees a small rebound after two weeks of large declines; Warren continues hot streak, setting a new high; Harris, Sanders, and Buttigieg see drops

Donald Trump’s odds continued to inch up moving from 1.99X to 1.98X, another all time high. This slow rise started at the end of May when he was at 2.04X. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats also improved a bit as they increased to 48.8% from 48.7% as the 5 Dems as a group stayed flat at 1.89X.

Joe Biden ended his two week post debate decline. His odds jumped to their highest post debate, at 8.19X compared to last week’s 8.66X. He was at 6.81X and second place prior to the debate. Even with the rise, and Kamala Harris’ drop this week (from 5.57X to 5.88X), Biden remained in 3rd place. Biden and Harris will get a chance at round 2 as they are once again matched up in the second debate.

Along with Harris, Elizabeth Warren was the other winner from the debates. She had momentum prior to it, and has maintained that momentum. Her odds improved this week from 9.45X to 8.88X. This is an all time high for her. Warren is known to do the behind the scenes work, whether it be putting out detailed policy, or doing the groundwork needed to win over voters, which she seems to have done for the pivotal Iowa caucus.

Trump, Biden, and Warren were the only three candidates in the top 10 to improve. Bernie Sanders continued to drop coming in at 15.6X. He has now dropped for 13 straight weeks and is at his lowest point in 5 months. Pete Buttigieg has now dropped 4 straight weeks at 16.6X, his lowest in 16 weeks.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump reaches new high; Harris leapfrogs Biden; Warren widens gap over Sanders; Julian Castro continues to have momentum

Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week as they are now at an even 2.00X surpassing the previous high of 2.02X set 4 weeks ago. We started tracking his odds compared to the next 5 Democrats combined. His implied likelihood increased from 48.1% last week to 49.0% as the top 5 Democrats decreased from a combined 1.88X to 1.92X.

Kamala Harris continued with her momentum coming out of the first debate as she improved from 7.53X to 6.33X. That combined with Biden’s continued struggles allowed her to jump over the VP to be the leading Democratic candidate as far the odds are concerned. The odds are just reflecting the post debate polls.

The other pair that swapped positions last week continued their recent trend. Warren continued to improve moving from from 9.7X to 9.4X, putting her in striking distance of Biden. These are all new highs for Warren. Bernie Sanders continues to lose momentum dropping from 12.8X to 14.0X. These are his lowest odds since the middle of February.

The under the radar candidate of the moment seems to be Julian Castro. He had one of the top debate performances and polls show it. His odds improved this week from 115.1X to 110.6X allowing him to jump to 14th place. He has improved the last 5 weeks. At that time he was in 30th place at 147.7X.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bennet 2020, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Castro 2020, de Blasio 2020, Delaney 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Inslee 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

First debate causes shakeup as Harris comes away the big winner at Biden’s expense. Debate and weeks of momentum finally have Warren move ahead of Sanders. Trump continues to cruise near all time highs

The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.

The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.

The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.

In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.

Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:

Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :

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