The top 6 remained unchanged with Donald Trump having higher odds than the next five candidates combined. Donald Trump came in at 26.5% probability which was flat to last week. He was followed by Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, and Tim Kaine. All five had a small decrease in odds as more names got added to the list.
Hillary Clinton was the biggest mover as she improved from 11th place to 8th place.
The big falls came from fellow Democrats Andrew Cuomo who went from 7th place to 10th place and Bernie Sanders who dropped from 9th place to 11th place.
Three additions came in at the same odds tied for 23rd place:
11 new names were added to the odds to get to 39 in total. Mathematically, this addition caused the odds for most candidates to drop (total needs to be 100%). For example, Donald Trump continues to lead but dropped from 30.0% to 26.5%. He would have been flat without the additions.
Trump has higher odds than the next four competitors combined: Mike Pence, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and Cory Booker.
There were two new entries into the top 10. Andrew Cuomo, the governor of NY, moves from 9th to 7th place. Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, moves from 12th place to 10th place.
A few of the big names that got added this week were:
Kamala Harris, who just got elected to the Senate out of CA in 16th place
Kirsten Gillibrand, the Senator from NY in 17th place
Mark Cuban, the billionaire businessman in 20th place
Mitt Romney, who may be named Secretary of State, in 23rd place
It’s never too early to look at the odds for the 2020 Presidential Elections. It’s not surprising that Donald Trump would lead the odds (4 of the last 5 Presidents have been re-elected). What is surprising is the low odds (30%) and the competition from his current party (Combined 26% for all other Republican candidates.)
Mike Pence being second at 9.0% suggests that a part of the odds of Trump not winning in 2020 could be Trump decides not to run for reelection.
The Democrats are topped by Elizabeth Warren at 7.3%. Will she finally run as the darling of the far left? In a slight surprise Michelle Obama comes in second place at 6.4%. Some oddsmakers as this article shows, have her as the most likely Democrat. The next two for the Democrats include Cory Booker, the Senator from NJ (4.3%), and Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s VP partner (4.1%).
Speaking of Clinton, she comes in 10th place at 2.9%. Age may be an issue for her at this point, as it is for Bernie Sanders (8th place 3.2%), and Joe Biden (15th place 2.3%).
