Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Cortez Masto 2020, Kaine 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Rubio 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Updated Odds: Trump Continues Big Lead; Pence, Obama, and Kaine Improve; Catherine Cortez Masto Debuts in Odds

Trump continued to have a large enough lead to have better odds than the next five candidates combined.  Although the probability dropped from 27.2% to 25.5%, it was a result of the pool of candidates increasing.  The payout actually dropped from 2.6x to 2.5x.

Although there wasn’t any change in the order of the top 6, Mike Pence and Michelle Obama improved.  Pence, who is in 2nd place, saw payout drop from 9.5x last week to 8.3x.  Obama, who is in 4th, had her payout drop from 13.7x to 12.2x.  A sign that money is coming in for both.

Tim Kaine also improved.  He moved from 9th place to 7th place.  His payout dropped from 26.6x to 22.4x.

One new debut this week was Catherine Cortez Masto, the D Senator elect from Nevada (first female Latina Senator).  She makes an impressive debut in 12th place at 26x (based on odds from 3 sites).  That seems high for a relative unknown ahead of bigger names like Amy Klobuchar, Marco Rubio, and Bernie Sanders.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Gowdy 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated 2020 Odds: Trump Continues to Have Significant Lead; Warren and Clinton Improve Odds; Trey Gowdy Makes Debut in 12th Place

Donald Trump maintained his healthy lead coming in at a probability of 27.2% while the next five candidates combined were at 25.8%.  Currently the average payout for betting on Trump is 2.6 to 1.

There was no movement in the top 6 candidates although Elizabeth Warren, who is in 3rd behind Mike Pence, improved her probabilty from 6.0% to 6.3%.  Every $1 bet her could potentially yield $11.1.

Hillary Clinton moved from 9th place to 7th place, the highest she has been.  Her payout is at 25.7 to 1.

There was one addition to the board with Trey Gowdy making his debut in 12th place with a payout of 29 to 1.  The South Carolina Republican Rep. seems to be increasing his profile and positioning himself as leading congressional oversight of Trump’s administration.

The betting odds overall got a bit more competitive between the different oddsmakers as evidenced  by Trump’s payout moving from an average of 2.5 to 1 last week to 2.6 to 1.  That should have meant his probability (as computed by combining with all other payouts) should have decreased.  Instead it increased from 26.6% to 27.2%.

Here are the full odds:

2020-election-odds-12-17-16

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Gingrich 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Ryan 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated 2020 Election Odds: Trump Continues with Large Lead; Ryan with Big Move to 6th place; Biden Moves into 10th Place Despite Denying He is Running

Donald Trump continues to payout about 2.5 to 1 which gives him about a 26.5% probability relative to all other candidates.  The top 5 remains unchanged with Mike Pence followed by Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and Cory Booker.  They combine for 22.6% probability.

Paul Ryan had a big move up from 9th place to 6th place.  A $1 bet on him currently yields $19.3 payout.  He was in 12th place 4 weeks ago and has improved every week since.

Joe Biden had an eventful week. Early in the week some of his quotes lead to speculation about him running.  He came back in the middle of the week saying “I have no intention of running”. The talk still pushed his odds up to 10th place after last week’s 14th place showing.  Currently a $1 bet on him would payout $24.9 if he wins.

One name that was added to the odds is Newt Gingrich.  He makes his debut in 34th place (out of 43) with a payout of $101 for every $1 bet.

Here are the full odds:

2020-election-odds-12-10-16

 

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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