Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Cuomo 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Both Trump and Biden see small improvement in odds; Cuomo mania calms down while VP speculation helps Kamala’s odds; Michigan and Pennsylvania likely to be keys to the election

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement from 1.92X to 1.89X. These are high highest odds since 3/7. He is still quite a ways behind his peak of 1.59X last achieved on 2/22. There has been a small slip in favoribility ratings the last few days after it improved significantly in the early days of COVID-19 (went from an average of 42% second week of March to 46% last weekend to the current 44.5%)

Joe Biden’s odds also saw a small improvement to 2.24X from 2.25X. That is an all time high. The small jump in odds for the week when Bernie Sanders decided to get out, shows that fact was anticipated in the market. The Trump and Biden odds combined imply that Trump now has a 54.2% chance of winning, vs last week’s 54.0%.

The frenzy over Cuomo faded a bit with his odds dropping from last week’s 29.0X to this week’s 34.6X. As a result Trump’s implied odds against Biden and Cuomo combined dropped from 52.1% to 52.7%.

Out of no where, Kamala Harris’ odds came back to life as speculation rose that she might be the VP candidate. Her odds are currently at 114.5X. She was last on the board at the end of the year at 438.2X.

Here are the odds:

With Biden basically winning the nomination, we’ll change the focus now to the electoral map. We will base the predictions on the most recent polling. Polling at the state level is still very sporadic and it’s still VERY EARLY. The polling right now would suggest a disconnect between the betting odds and the math from the polls. See below. Currently projecting Biden to win 310 to 228. If all of the split states (in yellow below) go Trump’s way, it would be a 269-269 tie. If all swing states go Biden’s way it would be 352 to 186 Biden win.

Again this is early, but the big changes vs. last election right now are Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20). They seem to have a high chance of moving to Biden based on polls. That’s a 72 point swing.

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Cuomo 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds see a slight improvement with his approval near all time highs; Biden and Sanders both see small drop; A draft Cuomo 2020 movement brings his odds back to life ahead of Sanders

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Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight improvement from three weeks ago improving from 1.97X to 1.92X. They are still off their highs of 1.59X last achieved on 2/22, a week before Biden’s South Carolina win. Trump’s approval rating is basically at all time highs, so the odds near all time highs should not be a surprise.

Joe Biden saw a small drop from 2.12X to 2.25X, but that is still his second highest odds. The implied odds between the two are 54% Trump, 46% Biden.

Bernie Sanders’ odds saw a small drop from 32.0X to 33.6X. There are his lowest odds since the end of 2016.

The most interesting change in the odds came with a “Draft Cuomo 2020” movment. Andrew Cuomo was last in our odds on 2/8 at 519.2X. With COVID-19 his profile has increased and his odds have now jumped to 29.0X (inexplicably ahead of Sanders). This is the highest he has been since April 2017!

Below are the odds. We will go back to looking at the state polls again next week.

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Biden’s odds nearly double again, reaching new highs; Trump’s odds see a drop, but stay ahead of Biden; Sanders odds lowest in three weeks, passed by a soaring Pence for third place; Odds of Clinton, Haley, and Obama also soar

Joe Biden had more large wins on Super Tuesday II including winning Michigan. As a result, his odds have basically doubled for the second straight week. They have now gone from 8.70X two weeks ago, to 3.99X last week, to 2.12X this week. These are the highest odds for any Democrat this cycle.

Donald Trump’s odds saw a sizable drop, possibly because polls show Biden is a more formidable opponent head to head than Sanders (more on that in a bit), or possibly of the impact of the Corona Virus. After being in a tight range of 1.59X to 1.60X the last five weeks, Trump’s odds dropped to 1.97X, his lowest in three months. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders improved to 1.98X, just shy of Trump. That’s an implied 50.2%/49.8% probability edge to Trump.

Sanders’ disappointing finish on Tuesday dropped his odds from 12.0X to 32.0X. It’s hard to believe just two weeks ago, he was at 3.99X. This is the lowest he has been in over 3 years (Jan 2017).

Mike Pence’s odds more than doubled. Perhaps that’s a hedge on Trump getting sick. Pence’s visibility has also increased tremendously driven by Trump appointing him as the head of the Corona Virus task force. The odds are now at 29.3X, his highest in over a year. These odds actually put him ahead of Bernie Sanders.

There were other jumps in people not running:

  • Hillary Clinton jumped from 71.1X to 39.6X, her highest in 10 weeks
  • Nikki Haley jumped from 242.7X to 116.1X, her highest in 8 weeks
  • Michelle Obama jumped from 178.5X to 116.5X, her highest in 10 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

For the second week we are turning the focus to the state by state polls of Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Sanders. These are starting to show a big differentiation, perhaps due to Biden’s momentum. In the last two weeks, polls have been done in 11 states. In 9 of those 11, Biden does better than Sanders against Trump. The other two are even. The biggest differences:

  • AZ, where two polls show Biden up by 8 pts and 6 pts, while they show Sanders ahead of Trump by 5 in one and Trump ahead by 7 in another.
  • Florida poll shows Trump up over Biden by 2 (statistical tie), but up over Sanders by 6
  • Pennsylvania Biden by 6 over Trump but Sanders only up by 2 (statistical tie)

The impact of those three states leads to a big victory for Biden over Trump (as we stand today) but basically a tossup for Sanders.

Here are the state by state projection based on the polls and the history of those states:

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