Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Who are the Top Democratic Candidates

For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline.  This time from 3.31X to 3.35X.  Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since.  He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.

Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)

The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren.  Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X.  She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.

Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections.  Her odds have declined over time however.  She started at 13.7X  and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later.  Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye.  She is currently at 17.6X.

Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat.  He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary.  He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016.  Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.

Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party.  She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year.  Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall.  Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.

Some other top Democrats:

  • Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
  • Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
  • Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March.  She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Haley 2020, Kasich 2020, Paul 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Scott 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Speculation about a GOP Primary Challenge Heats Up

Donald Trump continues to be the heavy favorite to win the 2020 elections, although his odds have dropped for the 5th straight week. This week, his payout has increased from 3.2X to 3.3X.  It was at 3.0X just 5 weeks ago.  His probability, at 19%, is still nearly 3 times the his next competitor, Mike Pence.

As his popularity has dropped, there has been speculation that Trump will get a challenge in the Primary.  Who could that challenge come from?  Here the other GOP candidates in the top 35:

Mike Pence: Although Mike Pence is unlikely to challenge Trump in a primary, he remains the 2nd highest from an odds perspective at 8.9X.  This basically signals that he will be the favorite for 2020 if Trump resigns, is impeached, or chooses not to run.  What’s interesting is his odds seem to move in the same direction as Trump’s: He seems to have peaked in the middle of June, which is Trump’s recent high.  At that time his payout was at 8.3X.

Paul Ryan: Ryan is currently 3rd among the Republicans and all the way down at 12th overall.  Like Pence, his success currently seems to hinge on Trump’s.  He peaked in early July at 25.5X and has been dropping  like Trump and Pence.  He is currently at 32.9X.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has been more openly critical than any of the Republicans above him.  Over the last two weeks he has moved from 20th place to 15th place.  He is currently at 41.2X.

Nikki Haley: Haley has probably done the best job in balancing being part of the administration (UN Ambassador) and keeping her distance from Trump.  She has improved over the last two weeks from 24th place to 21st place.  Her payout is currently at 45.5X.

John Kasich: Kasich has been the most consistent in being against some of Trump’s policies, like healthcare, while not attacking Trump in a personal manner.  At this point he would be the most likely to challenge Trump in a primary.  Kasich’s odds have moved more than anybody over the last two weeks with his payout moving from 59.6X to 48.9X.  He is currently in 25th place.

Ted Cruz: Cruz and Kasich were Trump’s last opponents in the primary, and would therefore be expected to be the favorites to be his primary opponents.  Although they are close in odds (Cruz is at 61.7X and in 28th place), Cruz has not moved much the last two weeks (He was in 29th place at 61.7X).

Mitt Romney: Romney has been mostly out of the public spotlight since his failed 2012 run.  His odds have showed little movement over the last year and he is currently in 30th place at 64.3X.

Tim Scott: Scott has just joined the leader board this week in 34th place at 67X.  The African-American GOP Senator came out this week saying Trump has lost his “moral authority”.

Rand Paul:  Paul has held steady.  he had been at 67X for 16 straight weeks until he dropped to 71X this week.  He is currently in 35th place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 693

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Lead Continues Slow Decline; Clinton Back in Top 10; Kasich up on NH Poll; Booker Down

Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline for the 4th straight week. His payout increased from 3.15X to 3.20X.  This is the lowest odds this election cycle.  It was at 2.98X four weeks ago.  The probability of him winning (19.3%) is still nearly as high as the next four challengers combined (20.1%)

Cory Booker saw a big drop  with the payout increasing from 22.2X to 24.6X.  That was enough to drop him to 8th place.  This is the lowest he has been at.  Kamala Harris seems to have stolen Booker’s thunder.  Booker started the election cycle in 5th place with a payout of only 19.6X.

Hillary Clinton saw improvement in her odds this week as they moved from 26.6X to 25.4X. That was enough to move her from 11th place to 9th place.  She has been as high as 5th place from late January to early May.

The biggest move up was John Kasich.  His odds moved from 59.6X to 49.7X. Those are his best odds of the cycle.  This moved him from 28th place to 26th place.  The improvement maybe the result of a poll of GOP NH primary voters came out showing they would prefer Kasich over Trump. 

Here is a full list of odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

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