Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

After 8 Weeks of Decline, Trump’s Odds Stabilize; Kamala Harris Jumps to 4th; Cruz Continues Hot Streak; Clinton Says She Isn’t Running, Odds Decline

After dropping for eight straight weeks, Donald Trump’s odds improved this week.  This comes at a time where he appears to be reaching across the aisle to work with Democrats on things like DACA, which may help him with independents but has angered his base. Payout for betting on Trump decreased from 3.46X to 3.45X.  The payout was at 2.98X before the decline started. Trump is the odds on favorite having higher odds than the next three competitors combined.

Kamala Harris continues to be the hottest name on the left.  She is beginning to be seen as potentially the top candidate for the Democrats  Her odds reflected this as she jumped over both Michelle Obama and Bernie Sanders into 4th place overall.  Her payout dropped from 21.0X to 17.7X.  The payout was over 30X at the beginning of July.

The hot name the past few weeks on the right has been Ted Cruz.  Cruz had an odd week as the story that caught the biggest headlines was his twitter account liking a porn tweet.  What might have helped his odds however is Trump’s possible pivot to the middle.  This created policy differences between Cruz and Trump in issues that are important to the Republican base such as immigration.  He moves from 29th place to 26th place.  His payout has dropped from 54.7X to 48.9X.  That is the highest odds he has been at this cycle.

Hillary Clinton had the biggest drop of the week as she embarked on her book tour.  In an interview last Sunday she stated “I am done with being a candidate” and she repeated that theme in interviews throughout the week.  She dropped from 11th place to 12th place with her payout increasing from 30.4X to 34.9X.  This is the lowest she has been.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 636

2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Johnson 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Clinton’s Book Publicity Hurting her Odds; Speculation about “The Rock” Continues; Klobuchar Increases Profile

Trump’s odds continued their slow decline as his payout increased from 3.39X to 3.46X.  This is the 8th straight week of increases.  His payout 8 weeks ago stood at 2.98X.  The probability of Trump being reelected is now at 17.5%, still higher than the next three candidates combined.

Hillary Clinton continued to be in the headlines as publicity of her book increased.  What also increased is calls from some Democrats to move on.  That has taken a toll on her odds the last few weeks.  Her payout is now at 30.4X down from 24.6X just 6 weeks ago and from its peak of 20.6X in March. The odds suggest a probability of just 2%.

One person who has momentum from Democratic voters is Amy Klobuchar.  Her profile continues to increase as she denies she has any interest in running.  Her payout is now down to 41.2X and she is in 18th place up from last week’s 20th place.

Speculation of Dwayne Johnson running continues every week since the topic first came up on the Tonight Show back in May.  The latest is from former colleague/wrestler Chris Jericho saying he has “no doubt’ that Johnson will run.  His payout decreased this week from 27.6X to 26.6X and he is currently in 10th place ahead of the likes of Hillary Clinton and Paul Ryan.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 604

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, JosephKennedy2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Sanders Jumps into 4th Place; Kennedy Reaches New High; Cruz Highest in 7 Weeks

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop for the 7th straight week as the payout increased from 3.35X to 3.39X.  The probability dropped to 17.7%, but is still more than the next three candidates combined.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to rise.  His payout decreased from 18.2X to 17.7X.  That was enough for him to jump into 4th over Michelle Obama.  This is the highest he has been this cycle.  He was asked this week about 2020 and replied with “People are sick and tired of it” (the never ending election cycle)

Joseph Kennedy reached a new high with his payout dropping from 40.1X to 38.3X.  That was enough for him to rise to 13th place.  He was in 19th place merely three weeks ago.

Ted Cruz’s odds improved with his payout decreasing from 61.7X to 56.3X.  That is the best they have been in 7 weeks.  He is currently in 30th place (Lower than prior weeks simply because more names have been added to the board)

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 658