Donald Trump’s tough week translated into decreased odds. Trump’s payout increased from 2.7X to 2.8X. This is the highest it has been. Trump was as low as 2.4X two months ago. Although this change might seem small, it’s a 16% increase in payout. The implied probability has also taken a hit, dropping from 23.7% to 22.7% in a week. It peaked at 26.9% in the middle of January. He still has as much odds as the next four combined.
Oddly enough, one would argue Paul Ryan also had a bad week but his odds actually rebounded from last week. He moved up to 9th place from 10th and his payout dropped from from 28.5X to 27.5X. He is still lower than two weeks ago when he was in 8th place with a payout of 26.2X.
Michelle Obama remained in 4th place but her odds improved as the payout decreased from 14.7X to 14.2X. That is her lowest payout of the month.
Mark Cuban was the biggest mover amongst the outsiders. His payout dropped from 63.7X to 51.0X moving him from 25th place to 23rd place.
Mark Zuckerberg continued his hot streak moving from 18th place to 15th place with the payout dropping from 41.4X to 36.8X. Two months ago he was in 45th place with a payout of 107X.
Donald Trump was steady at the top. The payout remained at 2.7X and his probability improved slightly from 23.5% to 23.7%. Prior to this week he had been drifting a little bit lower each week, having peaked in the middle of January at 26.9% probability and a 2.4X payout.
Paul Ryan took a hit this week as he was out promoting the healthcare bill. His payout spiked from 26.2X to 28.5X and he dropped from 8th place to 10th place.
A couple of non politicians continue to see their odds improve:
Oprah made her debut last week in 23rd place at 58.3X. She improves this week to 21st place with a big decline in payout to 46.7X.
Mark Zuckerberg improves from 20th place to 18th place with his payout now decreasing to 41.4X. He was in 45th place at 107.3X payout just two months ago.
Donald Trump continued to be the big favorite at 23.5% probability, higher than the next four candidates combined. It has been dropping however. The probability was at 24.5% last week and at 26.9% in the middle of January. The payout also reflects this. It is currently at 2.7X up from 2.6X last week and 2.5X four weeks ago.
Mike Pence continues to be the steady number two at 7.3% probability and an 8.6X payout. He has been the #2 since the elections.
Michelle Obama continues to be in fourth place but has seen a drop in her odds recently. For example her payout was at 13.6X two weeks ago and is now up to 14.7X.
Two veteran Democrats showed an increase this week. Bernie Sanders moved up from 8th place to 7th place as his payout dropped from 27.3X to 25.5X. Joe Biden continued to be in 9th place with his payout dropping from 28.0X to 26.6X.
Two new names were added to the list this week. Oprah Winfrey debuts in 23rd place with a payout of 58.3X. Al Franken also made his debut. He comes in 33rd place with a payout of 76.3X.
