All posts by Aztocas

Updated Election Odds: Trump Continues Slow Decline; Clinton Resurfaces; Klobuchar in Iowa; Zuckerberg Continues Hot Streak

Donald Trump’s odds continued their slow decline, moving from 21.3% to 20.7%, his lowest since the election.  His payout remains at 3.0X. (3.03X compared to 2.95X last week).  He still has as much probability as the next four candidates.

Hillary Clinton resurfaced this week blaming her loss on the Russian hack and news of the FBI investigation.  She made it clear she is part of the “resistance”.  She remained in 5th place with a slight increase in odds.  Her payout drops from 22.4X to 22.0X.

Amy Klobuchar was in Iowa this week fueling speculation of a 2020 run.  She is in 15th place.  Her payout dropped from 36.2X to 34.3X.

The biggest winner of the week was Mark Zuckerberg.  He moves from 16th place to 13th place.  His payout drops from 37.8X to 33.9X.   Zuckerberg has been up in 9 of the last 12 weeks. He continues to move up since he made his debut in January in 50th place at a payout of 107X.

Here are the full odds:

Probability Payout
Donald Trump 20.7%                 3.0
Mike Pence 7.4%                 8.5
Elizabeth Warren 6.1%              10.3
Michelle Obama 4.2%              14.8
Hillary Clinton 2.9%              22.0
Cory Booker 2.8%              22.2
Bernie Sanders 2.7%              23.1
Paul Ryan 2.3%              27.3
Joe Biden 2.2%              28.5
Andrew Cuomo 2.1%              30.2
Kamala Harris 1.9%              32.2
Tim Kaine 1.9%              32.5
Mark Zuckerberg 1.9%              33.9
Julian Castro 1.9%              33.9
Amy Klobuchar 1.8%              34.3
Michael Bloomberg 1.7%              37.2
Sherrod Brown 1.6%              39.3
Kirsten Gillibrand 1.6%              40.0
Marco Rubio 1.5%              41.6
Bill de Blasio 1.5%              42.0
Jospeh P Kennedy 1.5%              42.0
Oprah Winfrey 1.5%              42.0
Nikki Haley 1.2%              52.2
Mark Cuban 1.2%              53.5
John Hickenlooper 1.2%              54.2
Ted Cruz 1.1%              56.3
Tulsi Gabbard 1.1%              59.0
John Kasich 1.1%              59.6
Mitt Romney 0.9%              67.0
Al Gore 0.9%              67.0
Rand Paul 0.9%              67.0
Al Franken 0.9%              71.7
Trey Gowdy 0.9%              72.4
Tom Cotton 0.8%              75.0
Chris Christie 0.8%              76.3
Martin OMalley 0.8%              80.0
Leonardo DiCaprio 0.8%              81.0
Scott Walker 0.8%              82.0
Condoleezza Rice 0.7%              84.0
Jeb Bush 0.7%              84.7
Ivanka Trump 0.7%              93.1
Ben Carson 0.7%              94.3
Terry McAuliffe 0.7%              94.3
Ben Sasse 0.6%            101.0
Tammy Duckworth 0.6%            101.0
George Clooney 0.6%            101.0
Evan McMullin 0.6%            101.0
Newt Gingrich 0.6%            101.0
Sarah Palin 0.6%            101.0
Rob Portman 0.6%            101.0
Jason Kander 0.6%            101.0
Dwayne Johnson 0.6%            101.0
Chelsea Clinton 0.6%            101.0
Gary Johnson 0.5%            126.0
Kanye West 0.5%            131.6
Jill Stein 0.3%            188.5

For updated please follow me at @2016ElectOdds

Views – 753

Updated Election Odds: Trump’s Large Odds See a Small Decline; Warren and Castro’s Odds Improve; Oprah Moves Up to 20th Place

After a small bounce last week, Donald Trump’s odds resumed their slow decline.  His odds are still the highest at 21.3%, but down from 21.6% last week and the lowest since his election.  The payout is back up to 3.0X from 2.9X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the top Democrat and in 3rd place overall.  Her odds increased to 6.1% as her payoff dropped from 10.6X to 10.4X.  This is the highest she has been since the middle of March.

Julian Castro was another Democrat that saw an increase.  He moved from 14th place to 13th place with his payout dropping from 35.1X to 33.6X.  This is the lowest payout (best odds) he has been since the beginning of March.

Oprah Winfrey also saw a jump this week.  She moved from 22nd place to 20th place as her payout dropped from 48.8X to 42.0X.  These are the best odds she has had since making her debut in the middle of March with a payout of 58.3X.

Here are the full odds:

For updated please follow me at @2016ElectOdds

 

Views – 790

Donald Trump’s Odds Saw a Small Improvement; Paul Ryan Drops Ahead of Big Legislative Week; Booker and Cuomo Up

Donald Trump’s odds saw an uptick improving from 21.4% to 21.6%, and payout for those betting on him decreased from 3.0X to 2.9X. Both of these are exactly he was two weeks ago.

Paul Ryan’s odds dropped ahead of a big legislative week.  His payout increased from 26.6X to 27.3X.  He remains in 8th place

On the Democratic side, Cory Booker’s odds improved as his payout decreased from 22.9X to 22.4X.  This is the best he has been in 6 weeks. He remains in 6th place overall and 4th among the Democrats (behind Warren, Obama, and Clinton).

Andrew Cuomo also saw his odds improve as his payout dropped from 29.5X to 28.8X. This is right around the average of where he has been (28.5X) since the tracking started post elections.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me Twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 835