All posts by Aztocas

2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Johnson 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Clinton’s Book Publicity Hurting her Odds; Speculation about “The Rock” Continues; Klobuchar Increases Profile

Trump’s odds continued their slow decline as his payout increased from 3.39X to 3.46X.  This is the 8th straight week of increases.  His payout 8 weeks ago stood at 2.98X.  The probability of Trump being reelected is now at 17.5%, still higher than the next three candidates combined.

Hillary Clinton continued to be in the headlines as publicity of her book increased.  What also increased is calls from some Democrats to move on.  That has taken a toll on her odds the last few weeks.  Her payout is now at 30.4X down from 24.6X just 6 weeks ago and from its peak of 20.6X in March. The odds suggest a probability of just 2%.

One person who has momentum from Democratic voters is Amy Klobuchar.  Her profile continues to increase as she denies she has any interest in running.  Her payout is now down to 41.2X and she is in 18th place up from last week’s 20th place.

Speculation of Dwayne Johnson running continues every week since the topic first came up on the Tonight Show back in May.  The latest is from former colleague/wrestler Chris Jericho saying he has “no doubt’ that Johnson will run.  His payout decreased this week from 27.6X to 26.6X and he is currently in 10th place ahead of the likes of Hillary Clinton and Paul Ryan.

Here are the full odds:

 

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 731

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, JosephKennedy2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Sanders Jumps into 4th Place; Kennedy Reaches New High; Cruz Highest in 7 Weeks

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small drop for the 7th straight week as the payout increased from 3.35X to 3.39X.  The probability dropped to 17.7%, but is still more than the next three candidates combined.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to rise.  His payout decreased from 18.2X to 17.7X.  That was enough for him to jump into 4th over Michelle Obama.  This is the highest he has been this cycle.  He was asked this week about 2020 and replied with “People are sick and tired of it” (the never ending election cycle)

Joseph Kennedy reached a new high with his payout dropping from 40.1X to 38.3X.  That was enough for him to rise to 13th place.  He was in 19th place merely three weeks ago.

Ted Cruz’s odds improved with his payout decreasing from 61.7X to 56.3X.  That is the best they have been in 7 weeks.  He is currently in 30th place (Lower than prior weeks simply because more names have been added to the board)

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 799

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Who are the Top Democratic Candidates

For the 6th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline.  This time from 3.31X to 3.35X.  Donald Trump’s odds were at 2.98X on 7/15. That is a 13% increase in payout since.  He is still more than 2 1/2 times more likely than the number two candidate, Mike Pence.

Other than Trump’s small drop, there was very little change. I’ll use this lack of 2020 news week as an opportunity to talk about who the top Democratic candidates are. (We profiled the Republicans last week)

The top 2020 Democratic candidate from day one has been Elizabeth Warren.  Her odds started at 11.1X and are currently at 10.6X.  She peaked at 9.7X at the beginning of June.

Michelle Obama has been the consistent #2 Democrat since the elections.  Her odds have declined over time however.  She started at 13.7X  and reached 12.1X a couple of weeks later.  Her odds have drifted down however, as she has been absent from the public eye.  She is currently at 17.6X.

Bernie Sanders is currently the third leading Democrat.  He started the cycle in 8th place overall after finishing second in the 2016 Democratic Primary.  He then dropped very quickly to 18th place by the end of 2016.  Since then he has worked his way up from a 33.9X payout to the current 18.2X which puts him in 5th overall.

Kamala Harris seems to have the most momentum in the Democratic party.  She started out in 16th place overall and was in 18th place at the beginning of the year.  Since then she has exploded and is currently in 4th place among the Democrats and 6th place overall.  Her payout was at 36.4X in January and is currently at 20.4X.

Some other top Democrats:

  • Joe Biden at 5th place in June (20.9X) and is now 8th place overall at 25.7X
  • Cory Booker started the cycle at 5th place (19.6X) and is now in 9th place at 26.5X
  • Hillary Clinton was in 5th place from the end of January to the beginning of May. peaking at 20.6X in the middle of March.  She is currently in 11th place at 28.0X.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 775