Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week at 2.10X up from last week’s previous high of 2.18X. He has now either been tied or achieved a new high the last 12 weeks. The odds have achieved these highs despite recent polls, including this one from Fox News, showing the top 3 Democrats would beat Trump head to head.
The hottest name continues to be Joe Biden. He achieved another new high improving from 6.11X to 5.84X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks, nearly doubling his odds since. He was at 10.7X just 6 weeks ago. Biden has been ramping up his campaign including making Philadelphia (with Pennsylvania a must win state) his headquarters.
The other name for the Democrats gaining momentum is Elizabeth Warren. She improved once again from 23.6X to 22.7X. She has now improved for four straight weeks and just passed Beto for 6th place. Her growth seems to be coming with progressives at the expense of Bernie Sanders. Sanders is still ahead of her in 3rd place with nearly 3 times the odds (7.69X).
What’s another week without more candidates for the Democrats. This week saw candidates #22 and 23. First came Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock, whose credentials include being a Democratic Governor in a Red state, didn’t make much of a splash. His odds actually dropped from 141.4X to 145.8X. He is in 35th place overall.
Next came NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio. His announcement had a bigger impact in the odds. He rocketed from 166.9X to 124.3X moving him up from 45th to 21st place.
Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:
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