While Hillary Clinton has maintained her big lead over other candidates, the field behind her has become very volatile driven by news and speculation on who’s running.

December was the month that Jeb Bush announced he would explore running.  His Odds doubled  from 4.9% to end November to last week’s 9.8%

Now it’s Mitt Romney’s turn.  He announced that he is giving serious thought to running earlier in the week.  His odds as a result shot up from 2.3% to 3.1%.  He is now 6th overall swapping spots with Elizabeth Warren.  What’s interesting is to look at who his increase in odds came at the expense of:

Jeb Bush accounted for 0.2% of the 0.8% although he maintained his large lead for second place at 9.6%

Marco Rubio and Chris Christie each lost 0.1% but maintained their spots as 3rd and 4th place candidates.

Rand Paul was not affected

Paul Ryan, Romney’s former VP candidate, saw the biggest drop.  He lost 0.3% dropping to just 1.5%. He remained in 9th place but has seen consistent erosion since peaking at 4th place in the summer at a high of 3.9%.

Rob Portman has been declining over the last few weeks as it has become obvious he will be running for re-election to the Senate than for President.  He is now in 23rd place after being at 15th just a couple of months back.

Ben Carson dropped from 41st to 44th perhaps due to some ISIS comments he made

Here’s the update odds for the entire field

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

 

 

Views – 966

This week’s odds had very little movement as for the first time in 11 weeks Jeb Bush did not see a significant gain.  Over that run, He has increased from 4.1% to 9.8%.

Hillary Clinton maintains her strong position although once again it saw a small dip to 38.9%.  Over the last 8 months she has ranged between 36.8% and 45.5%.

With so little change this week, Let’s look at how the top 10 candidates have trended over the last 8 months.  This is based on the slope of the line that represents their weekly odds that can be found here

Biggest Increase: Jeb Bush

Moderate Increases: Mitt Romney and Elizabeth Warren

Small Increase: Scott Walker

Small Decreases: Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Joe Biden, Rand Paul

Moderate Decrease: Hillary Clinton (still holds a big lead.  Drop in graph may not appear large since it’s on a different scale)

Biggest Decrease: Paul Ryan

Here’s the overall odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 848

Jeb Bush continued his meteoric rise in the odds, improving to 9.8% from 9.2% last week.  Bush was below 5% and behind Rubio just 2 months ago.

Hillary Clinton continues to dominate at 39.8%, although she is at her lowest point in 2 months.  According to the odds, she is still 4 times more likely of being elected than Jeb Bush.

Marco Rubio (4.2%), Chris Christie (3.5%) and Rand Paul (3.2%) round out the top 5.

Mitt Romney continues to improve and now has a 2.4% probability from just 1.9% two months prior. He is in 7th place.

On the Democratic side John Kerry has been slowly moving up from 24th place in the summer to 15th place this week at 1.2%.

Top 5 most improved the last 6 months:

– Jeb Bush +5.2% (4.6% to 9.8%)

-Mitt Romney +1.5% (0.9% to 2.4% and 29th place to 7th)

-Kirsten Gillibrand +1.2% (0.2% to 1.4%)

-Deval Patrick from 45th to 18th

-Susana Martinez from 30th to 17th

Top 5 decreases the last 6 months:

-Hillary Clinton -2.3% (from 42.1% to 39.8%)

-Paul Ryan -2.1% (from 3.9% to 1.7%)

-John Huntsman -0.8% (from 1.4% to 0.6%)

-Rick Perry (-0.6%) from 1.4% to 0.8% and 10th place to 28th place)

– Bobby Jindal from 9th place to 16th place

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1017