Hillary Clinton continues to dominate the odds at 40.2%.  She has been between 40% and 40.5% the last 5 weeks.

The big mover has been Jeb Bush.  He has improved for 8 straight weeks and took over the #2 overall spot from Marco Rubio on 11/8.  This week he improved to 9.2% from last week’s 8.5%.  Two months ago he was at just 4.1%.  He now has twice the odds as any of the other candidates behind him.  Rubio is still the closest competitor at 4.1%.

Aside from Bush, there were very little changes in odds.

With such a slow week, I decided to sum the odds up and see what they say about the likelihood of have a male vs. female, and Republican vs. Democrat.

Are we likely to have the first female president? The odds are currently at 51% male 49% female.  The top 3 female candidates are all Democrats: Clinton,  Elizabeth Warren who is in 6th overall at 2.4%, and Kirsten Gillibrand 13th overall at 1.3%.  The next two are Republican long shots with Susana Martinez and Condoleeza Rice at 1%.

How about Republicans vs. Democrats?  Currently, thanks to Clinton, the Democrats lead 58% to 42%.  Republican do have 4 of the top 5 candidates, but that is more of a function of there not being as strong a front-runner probability wise as the Democrats.

When combining gender and party, we find that we are most likely to have a Democrat who is female as the next president (46%) followed by a male Republican (39%), a male Democrat (12%) and a female Republican (3%)

Here are the overall odds for this week:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 901

Jeb Bush had the biggest jump in odds, moving from a 6.5% probability to 8.5% after the Facebook announcement that he would explore running in 2016.

He remains in second place far behind Hillary Clinton who is at 40.1% probability.  Bush has more than doubled his odds from early November, and now has more than twice the probability of the next candidate, Marco Rubio at 4.2%.

Rubio has been drifting down since peaking at 5.1% in October.   Rubio is making headlines this week in his fight with the 5th place candidate Rand Paul (3.1%) over the new diplomatic relations with Cuba.

On the Democratic side, Martin O’Malley has moved into 10th place overall jumping over Scott Walker who had seen a post election surge.  O’Malley has not announced his intentions but will wait until the spring like many other Democratic candidates waiting to see what happens with Hillary Clinton.

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 891

This weeks odds show very little changes at the top with Hillary Clinton continuing to lead at 40.4% probability, with the closest Democrat, Elizabeth Warren coming in at 6th with 2.6%.

Jeb Bush continues to be the strongest in the Republican field at 6.5% with Marco Rubio (4.5%), Chris Chrisitie (3.9%), and Rand Paul (3.3%) rounding out the top 5.

Two minor changes in the top 20:

Kirsten Gillibrand swaps spots with her fellow NY Democrat Andrew Cuomo.  She is now 13th overall and 5th for the Democrats.

Bobby Jindal moves up to 15th place and 9th overall for the Republicans.  He is one of the most prepared among the candidates for the run.  The Washington Post even lists him as the 7th most likely candidate for the Republicans.

Here are the overall results

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1079