The last few months have been very quiet on the Democratic side with Hillary Clinton continuing to lead the overall race with a 38.4% probability.  Her closest Democratic competitors have continued to be Elizabeth Warren (2.6%, 7th overall), Joe Biden (1.8%, 9th), Andrew Cuomo (1.3% 11th), and Martin O’Malley (1.3%, 12th).

The Republican side, in the mean time, has seen a lot of changes.

Mitt Romney has seen the biggest movements.  Three months ago he was in 9th place.  He quickly vaulted to 5th place two weeks ago due to speculation on him running.  The bubble quickly popped as he decided not to run, resulting in this week’s 8th place standing.

This week’s big mover was Scott Walker.  Less than a month ago he was in 11th place but he started gaining momentum and came in last week at 9th place.  This past week saw a dramatic rise from Walker as different polls have led some to anoint him the campaign’s first “it” candidate. He is now 6th overall increasing his probability from 1.5% two weeks ago to 2.7% this week.

There were two other big movers on the Republican side.

Mike Huckabee rose from 27th to 22nd as some controversial gay marriage comments he made this week may have helped him with the social conservative part of the Republican base.

Ben Carson is moving toward the top 25 as well.  He was 43rd only two weeks ago and is now in 27th place.

Here is the entire field with the probabilities.

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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Mitt Romney’s announcement that he will not run was the biggest 2016 news this week.  As a result he drops from 5th place to 7th place and gets passed by Rand Paul for 5th and Elizabeth Warren for 6th.  His continued presence in the top 10 suggests either some believe he will jump back in or some of the oddsmakers are slow to react.

The two big beneficiaries were Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio who combined picked up more than what Romney lost.  Bush now has 10% odds (the first person other than Hillary Clinton to have double digits).  Rubio’s 4.6% probability is less than half of Bush’s.

Scott Walker was also a  big gainer improving by 0.3% to 1.8% which puts him at 9th place passing Paul Ryan.  This is the highest Walker has been.  He currently has a slight lead in Iowa based on a recent poll

Rand Paul saw a 0.2% drop and is now at his lowest point since August, although his 2.9% puts him in 5th place.

Ben Carson jumped from 43rd to 30th place.  He is seen as the “outsider” on the GOP side and has managed to connect with the conservative voters. He has yet to decide if he is running.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead but had a 0.8% drop to 38.1%.  Her lowest since November.

Jim Webb jumped from 48th to 23rd place.  Webb has been quiet recently after announcing an exploratory committee late last year.  He is recovering from knee replacement surgery.

Here’s the full odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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Hillary Clinton continued to hold a big lead at 38.9% while Mitt Romney continued to improve on the Republican side.  His modest 0.1% was enough to increase his total to 3.2%, allowing him to jump Rand Paul for 5th place.

Scott Walker is back in the top 10 as it’s looking more and more like he may run. He replaces Democrat Martin O’Malley who is also seriously considering a run.

Rick Perry continues to tumble moving from 28th to 32nd with only a 0.7% chance of winning.  He reached as high as #4 in August.

Sarah Palin made some headlines says she is “seriously interested” in running. What do the oddsmakers think? She moved up from 42nd to 37th at 0.6% probability.

Here’s the full list

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 888