Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week as they are now at an even 2.00X surpassing the previous high of 2.02X set 4 weeks ago. We started tracking his odds compared to the next 5 Democrats combined. His implied likelihood increased from 48.1% last week to 49.0% as the top 5 Democrats decreased from a combined 1.88X to 1.92X.
Kamala Harris continued with her momentum coming out of the first debate as she improved from 7.53X to 6.33X. That combined with Biden’s continued struggles allowed her to jump over the VP to be the leading Democratic candidate as far the odds are concerned. The odds are just reflecting the post debate polls.
The other pair that swapped positions last week continued their recent trend. Warren continued to improve moving from from 9.7X to 9.4X, putting her in striking distance of Biden. These are all new highs for Warren. Bernie Sanders continues to lose momentum dropping from 12.8X to 14.0X. These are his lowest odds since the middle of February.
The under the radar candidate of the moment seems to be Julian Castro. He had one of the top debate performances and polls show it. His odds improved this week from 115.1X to 110.6X allowing him to jump to 14th place. He has improved the last 5 weeks. At that time he was in 30th place at 147.7X.
Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:
The first major shakeup of the odds this elections season came as a result of the first Democratic Debates, with Kamala Harris’ clash with Joe Biden on his history with segregationists having the biggest impact.
Kamala Harris’ odds saw the largest odds increase moving from 13.5X to 7.5X, a nearly 80% jump in odds. The 7.5X is the highest she has been in 14 weeks and was enough to propel her from last week’s 5th place for the Dems to jump over Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg for second place. She clearly has the momentum as evidenced by her raising $2M in the first 24 hours after the debate.
The clash had the opposite impact on the Democratic front runner with his odds dropping from 5.50X to 6.81X, a nearly 20% drop and his lowest in 9 weeks. Biden is still the odds favorite after the debate, but he must reverse momentum or risk losing much of his fundraising support.
The other subplot may be the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders competition for lead among progressives. For the last 16 weeks, Joe Biden has been either the favorite or in second place for the Dems. For the last 11 weeks, Elizabeth Warren has been improving her odds at the expense of Sanders’ odds. Warren’s performance at the debate finally allowed her to leapfrog Sanders. Her odds jumped from 12.1X to 9.7X, landing her in 3rd place overall for the Dems. Sanders’ odds dropped from 11.7X to 12.8X, his lowest in over 4 months, taking him from 2nd place to 4th place among the Dems.
In the mean time, Donald Trump continued to cruise near all time highs at 2.03X. This is the 3rd straight week at the same level, and is just shy of the all time high of 2.02X achieved at the beginning of June. He has been in a narrow range of 2.02X to 2.04X the last 6 weeks. Although his odds were flat, the top 5 Democrats moved up as a group from 1.98X to 1.88X. The implied probability of the top 5 Dems vs. Trump moved from 50.6% Dems/ 49.4% Trump to 51.9% Dems / 48.1% Trump.
Here is a summary of the 20 Democrats in the debate and how their odds moved:
Here are the current standings for the 44 candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds (Note how 4 of the candidates from the debate are not on this list) :
Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week and remained at their all time high of 2.02X. The odds have now been at a new high or tied for a new high for the last 8 weeks.
After a one week decline, Joe Biden’s odds resumed their upward moves and reached another new high at 5.19X. They were at 5.61X the previous week and 5.57X two weeks ago, the all time high at that point. This as several polls show Biden would have a significant lead over Trump in head to head match-ups in key states like Michigan.
Pete Buttigieg continues to be the breakout of the election cycle. He improved on the week from 15.5X to 13.8X. He is below his all time high however reached near the end of April of 11.1X. He is currently in 5th place.
Just behind Buttigieg is the hottest recent name, Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been up for 7 straight weeks and improved this week from 21.5X to 20.3X. It’s clear that Sanders and Warren are fighting for the same voter as Sanders has been down those same 7 weeks. (Sanders has gone from 6.97X to 8.97 while Warren has gone from 32X to 20.3X)
Other names that showed life this week were Tulsi Gabbard (up from 56.3X to 53.3X, a 9 week high), John Hickenlooper (up from 145.3X to 125.6X, and from 28th place to 19th place, a 6 week high), and Mark Cuban (196.2X to 134.3X and 60th place to 23rd place). Cuban’s change is interesting as there was no recent news of him running and quite a few sites upgraded his odds from around 150X to around 70X)
Below is the list of the 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot: