All posts by Aztocas

Afghanistan causes drop in Biden’s odds; Trump’s odds see large jump to new 2024 high; Buttigieg a Biden alternative?

Joe Biden’s odds dropped for the first time in 10 weeks from 4.55X to 4.71X as scenes from the evacuation of Americans from Kabul played every day for over a week.

Kamala Harris’ odds saw a small improvement (less than Biden’s drop) from 5.40X to 5.30X. This is still below where she was two weeks ago.

Donald Trump was the big winner on the week. His odds improved from 7.63X to 6.87X, a new high for 2024. His previous new high was 7.11X mid December 2020.

The second biggest gainer on the week was Pete Buttigieg. His odds improved from 37.0X to 34.3X. These are his best odds since mid February. This was enough to have him improve from 10th place overall to 8th place, his highest of the cycle and where he was in February.

Here are the top 50:

Views – 22

Biden continues reaching new highs despite crisis in Afghanistan; Harris reach another new low, while Trump improved to a 12 week high; DeSantis odds declined to a 5 week low, likely due to COVID in his state

Joe Biden’s odds continued to improve, perhaps not yet accounting for this weekend’s events in Afghanistan/Kabul evacuation of embassy employees. They improved from 4.85X to 4.55X, another new high and an improvement for a 9th straight week.

Kamala Harris continued her recent drop, this week from 5.24X to 5.40X. This is her 6th drop in a row and a new low.

Donald Trump’s odds have been improving but at a slower rate than Biden’s. His odds this week improved to 7.63X from 7.71X. These are high highest odds since in 12 weeks.

Ron DeSantis, the candidate that has improved the most this year among the top tier, saw a drop from 12.2X to 12.5X, his lowest odds in 5 weeks. His profile continues to increase as a part of his states COVID policies, although this week Florida reached a new high in infections and hospitalizations. That might be hurting his odds.

Here are the top 50 candidates:

Views – 90

Biden extends lead over Harris while Trump sees slight improvement; DeSantis steady in 4th place

A week after taking the lead over his VP, Joe Biden’s odds continued to expand his lead. He improved from 4.96X to 4.85X, another new all time high.

Kamala Harris dropped again, this week from 5.13X to 5.24X, her lowest odds.

Donald Trump had another small improvement this week from 7.75X to 7.71X, his 6th straight improvement. His current odds are the highest in 10 weeks.

Although Ron DeSantis has been getting a lot of air time on the news, his odds did not move and stayed at 12.2X, his all time high, and very securely in 4th place.

Here are the top 50 in odds:

Views – 37