Donald Trump’s attempt at restarting the rallies faced a COVID-19 reality last weekend with a disappointing turnout. That was one of the factors in causing another drop in the odds as they moved from 2.26X to 2.56X. That is their lowest since March 2019. Joe Biden hasn’t been as visible, but he has been doing well raising money, outraising Trump in May. His odds reached a new high at 1.6X up from 1.76X the previous week. That is just shy of Trump’s high of 1.59X, reached in February, before COVID-19 was on the radar of the American public. The implied odds between the two now favor Biden 61.5% to 38.5% for Trump.
Here are the full odds:
The race for VP continued to show Kamala Harris at the top, although her odds showed a little bit of a decline from 1.9X to 2.1X. Elizabeth Warren’s odds improved from 20.0X to 12.5X. Interestingly, Warren seems to be the more popular pick for black Democrats. Karen Bass also showed up in the odds at 50X to 1
Here are the full odds:
For a second straight week there were many state polls. Here’s the ones that matter (swing states):
Minnesota: Biden +16. This is currently not looking like a swing state
Michigan: Biden +1, Biden +11 continues leading this very important state
North Carolina Biden: +2, Biden +9, Biden +2 Polls. Biden seems to have swung the state in his direction. Moving this to his column.
Wisconsin: Biden +8 looking less and less like a tossup state with Biden firmly in the lead
Ohio: Biden +1, the last remaining tossup as of now.
Arizona: Biden +7, seems to currently have a fairly firm grip on the state
Pennsylvania: Biden +10 seems to be asserting control of this important state (like Michigan and Wisconsin)
Florida: Biden +6, Biden +9 Polls indicate this is no longer a swing state and is in Biden’s column
Georgia: Biden +2. This is a surprise. Currently leaving it in Trump’s column
Texas: Biden +1: Same as Georgia, leaving it in Trump’s column
With the move of North Carolina to Biden, we are now forecasting 343 Biden 195 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:
For a second straight week, Joe Biden has widened his lead over Donald Trump and reached a new high. Biden’s odds improved from 1.80X to 1.76X, improving for a 4th straight week. His odds were at 2.26X prior to that streak. Biden’s odds moving up is a function of Donald Trump’s odds dropping. His odds have dropped the last four weeks from 1.91X to 2.19X last week to 2.26X this week, his lowest since December. The President will try to reverse that trend as he restarts his rallies in Tulsa tonight. The implied head to head advantage for Biden is now at 56.2%, up from last week’s 54.8%.
Here are the full odds:
Kamala Harris continues to improve at the top of the VP list. She is now not only the favorite, but the likely VP nominee as her odds move above 50% from 2.2X to 1.9X. The other big improvement came from Val Demings who has worked her way up from 25.0X when she made her debut on 5/16 to the current 5.3X. Big drops came from Atlanta mayor Bottoms whose odds went from 16.7X to 40.0X and Amy Klobuchar who withdrew from consideration and dropped from 100X to 200X. Prior to Floyd’s death, Klobuchar was considered a front-runner at 4.8X (second place).
Here are the full odds:
There was a long list of state polls released this week. Here are the one that impact some of the swing states:
Iowa Trump +1. Keeping Iowa in the Trunp column but last two polls suggest it’s more of a tossup
Michigan Biden +13, Biden +16, Biden +2. The +2 seems to be an outlier and at least for now Biden seems to be in control of Michigan
Florida Biden +11, Biden +7 consistent with recent polls of this very important state
Wisconsin Biden +4. Biden has led 3 of last 4 polls in this state with the fourth being a tie. Moving state to Biden.
Arizona Biden +1, tighter than other polls, but Biden still has 3 of the last 4. State could be close to a tossup.
North Carolina Biden +2, Trump +3. One for each shows why this state is a tossup
Pennsylvania Biden +3. Biden has 3 of the last 4 in this state with two of them by a wide margin (6 and 8)
New Hampshire Biden +7 keeping it in Biden’s column
With the move of Wisconsin to Biden, we are now forecasting 335 Biden 203 Trump. Details by state below:
One week after overtaking Donald Trump for the lead, Joe Biden’s odds continued to improve. They reached a new high at 1.80X up from last week’s 1.90X. Trump’s odds dropped from 2.11X o 2.19X, his lowest since Thanksgiving of 2019. The implied odds between the two are now 54.8% for Biden to 45.2% for Trump. This is the widest gap for either since it became a two man race.
Here are the full odds:
On the VP side, Kamala Harris continued to improve and her odds reached almost 50% this week at 2.2X. The other big improvement came from Susan Rice who is reportedly one of the finalists.
Here are the full odds:
Only one state poll was released this past week: Michigan with Biden +12. This poll may be an outlier for the size of the gap, but not for the fact that Biden leads: Biden has lead all 19 polls in Michigan so far. This is not a good sign for Trump, as Michigan is a must win.
We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:
