2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Biden’s lead over Trump reaches a new high as Biden finds his footing in fund raising and Trump is disappointed with his return rally; Harris continues to lead for VP although Warren’s odds see a jump; State polls: MI, PA, WI, FL all seem to be Biden’s. Could GA and TX flip?

Donald Trump’s attempt at restarting the rallies faced a COVID-19 reality last weekend with a disappointing turnout. That was one of the factors in causing another drop in the odds as they moved from 2.26X to 2.56X. That is their lowest since March 2019. Joe Biden hasn’t been as visible, but he has been doing well raising money, outraising Trump in May. His odds reached a new high at 1.6X up from 1.76X the previous week. That is just shy of Trump’s high of 1.59X, reached in February, before COVID-19 was on the radar of the American public. The implied odds between the two now favor Biden 61.5% to 38.5% for Trump.

Here are the full odds:

The race for VP continued to show Kamala Harris at the top, although her odds showed a little bit of a decline from 1.9X to 2.1X. Elizabeth Warren’s odds improved from 20.0X to 12.5X. Interestingly, Warren seems to be the more popular pick for black Democrats. Karen Bass also showed up in the odds at 50X to 1

Here are the full odds:

For a second straight week there were many state polls. Here’s the ones that matter (swing states):

  • Minnesota: Biden +16. This is currently not looking like a swing state
  • Michigan: Biden +1, Biden +11 continues leading this very important state
  • North Carolina Biden: +2, Biden +9, Biden +2 Polls. Biden seems to have swung the state in his direction. Moving this to his column.
  • Wisconsin: Biden +8 looking less and less like a tossup state with Biden firmly in the lead
  • Ohio: Biden +1, the last remaining tossup as of now.
  • Arizona: Biden +7, seems to currently have a fairly firm grip on the state
  • Pennsylvania: Biden +10 seems to be asserting control of this important state (like Michigan and Wisconsin)
  • Florida: Biden +6, Biden +9 Polls indicate this is no longer a swing state and is in Biden’s column
  • Georgia: Biden +2. This is a surprise. Currently leaving it in Trump’s column
  • Texas: Biden +1: Same as Georgia, leaving it in Trump’s column

With the move of North Carolina to Biden, we are now forecasting 343 Biden 195 Trump. Details by state and a trend of the forecast below:

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