Iowa Poll of potential Republican electorate shows a tie between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul (12%) followed by Paul Ryan (11%), Rick Santorum (9%), Chris Christie (8%), and a three way tie for 6th of Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio (7%).
Interestingly, Rick Santorum moves from fourth to second for the question “Who is your second choice”
Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 70/20
Three Republican candidates are within the margin of error in a head to head battle with Clinton:
This week I’m adding a probability for each candidate based on the relative odds of all candidates combined. The top 3 candidates remain unchanged: Clinton +165 / 40.8% probability Bush and Rubio +1500 / 4.5% probability each Improved Odds: Rick Perry moves from 10th place to 7th place. (Odds from +5000 to +3000). Probability 2.2% Ted Cruz remains in 10th but improved odds from +5000 to +4000. Probability 1.7% Mitt Romney with biggest move this week from 29th to 12th (+8000 to +5000) probability 1.3% Decreased Odds: Christie and Ryan remain tied for 4th although both declined from +1800 to +2000 (probability 3.4%) Joe Biden declines from +2800 to +3500 (1.9%) Michael Bloomberg declines from +6000 to +7000 (1.0%) For the odds on all the candidates For recent news on the race For recent Polls Follow me on twitter for updates @2016ElectOdds