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Ohio Poll shows Clinton ahead of Republican candidates with Rand closest

Ohio figures to be one of the more important swing states in the 2016 election (Barack Obama won it 50.7% to 47.7% in 2012, but it was Republican in 2008 with George Bush winning it 50.8% to 48.7%)

A poll of 1,366 registered voters in Ohio taken July 24-28 showed Hillary Clinton ahead of  four possible Republican canadidates:

– ahead of Rand Paul by 4 (46-42)
– ahead of Jeb Bush by 11 (48-37)
– ahead of Chris Christie by 9 (46-37)
– ahead of John Kasich by 7 (47-40)

Paul is closer than other Republicans because he beats Clinton among independent voters 44 to 41. Clinton wins the independent vote against the other candidates.

Kasich, the current governor of Ohio, is running for re-election this year and depending on the poll has about a 5 point lead over Democrat Ed FitzGerald.   He has a +16 net favorability in Ohio. Clinton polling ahead of him in Ohio is quite an achievement.

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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Gallup Favorable vs. Familiarity Ratings for 16 Presidential Candidates

Gallup released some interesting numbers where it combined each candidate’s Favorability rating vs the Familiarity rating.  See chart below.

Some findings:
– Hillary Clinton is obviously the most known of the group (91% familiarity) but she also has the highest net favorability (+19% based on 55% favorable and 36% unfavorable)
– Jeb Bush and Joe Biden are well known but are not well liked.  They need to work to change people’s opinions.
– Mike Huckabee has the highest net favorability rating among the Republicans, and has average familiarity among all the candidates.
– Many Republicans’ favorability is recovering:
  • Ted Cruz was as low as -10 in October 2013 due to the government shutdown.  he is now at +2
  • Chris Christie peaked at +32 in June 2013, but “Bridgegate” brought him down to -9 earlier this year.  He is know at +1
  • Rick Perry got as low as -28 after the poor 2012 presidential debate, with his familiarity peaking at 82%.  It seems now people have forgotten, with his familiarity down to 58% and his favorability is now +6!

– It will be an uphill battle for Rick Santorum and Martin O’Malley as less than 50% of the people know who they are, but those that know them give them an unfavorable rating. 

For all the Gallup numbers click here
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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Fox News Poll – Perry making move in race for Republican nomination

A Fox News Poll conducted 7/20-7/22 has many questions about Obama, Congress, direction of country, etc.

Buried in it are some 2016 Presidential race items:

Republican nomination:
Similar to other polls, it shows the Republican field as a crowded group of 7 candidates with 3% separating 1st from 7th (basically the margin of error)

In this poll Jeb Bush and Rick Perry lead the pack at 12% followed by Rand Paul at 11%, Chris Christie at 10%, and finally Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz at 9%.

The thing that stood out the most was Rick Perry‘s climb from just 3% in the poll taken in December to the 12% in this poll.

The opposite was true of Chris Christie who won the December poll with 16% and dropped down to 10% in the most recent numbers.

Democratic nomination:
It remains a 3 horse race with Hillary Clinton in the lead (64%) followed by Joe Biden (12%) and Elizabeth Warren (9%)

Clinton actually dropped by 4% from December’s 68%
Warren gained 2% up from December’s 7%

Head to Head:
Only 4 head to head matchups were polled
Clinton +10 over Christie (50-40)
Clinton +11 over Paul (52-41)
Clinton +13 over Bush (52-39)
Clinton +19 over John Kasich (54-35).  Kasich only got 2% in the Republican nomination poll.

For the full poll release click here

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates via twitter follow @2016ElectOdds

Views – 896

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