After declining for 7 straight weeks, Hillary Clinton was able to turn it around and improve by 1% to 39.2%.  She is nearly 4 time the odds of the next closest competitor Jeb Bush.

Bush declined for the second straight week to 10.9% from 11.9%.  He has declined for two straight weeks and is at his lowest point since June.  Bush’s loss seemed to go entirely to Marco Rubio.

Rubio was the biggest mover of the week, improving from 5.8% to 7.2%.  That is the highest odds he has ever had and was enough to move him past Donald Trump for 4th place.

Even though Trump dropped to 5th place, he remained fairly flat coming in at 6.7% compared to last week’s 6.8%.  This is the third straight week where Trump has dropped.

Joe Biden (3rd overall at 7.7%) and Bernie Sanders (6th overall at 5.1%) were fairly flat and seem to be Clinton’s only true competitors for the Democratic nomination.

Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, John Kasich, and Chris Christie were all up slightly and rounded up the top 10.

Here’s the full list:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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Hillary Clinton’s odds declined from 39.8% to 38.2%.  That is the lowest she has been in seven months and 8th straight week she has dropped.  She continues to have a commanding lead however with more than a 3 to 1 margin.

Hillary’s drop was a result of a big jump in Joe Biden’s Odds.  Biden improved from 5.2% to 7.6% and has now improved in the last 9 weeks when he was merely at 1.5%.  Over that time he has climbed from 7th place all the way to 3rd place this week.

On the Republican side, Jeb Bush continues to have the highest odds at 11.9%, but he has also seen his odds drop recently.  He is at the lowest point in 3 months.

Donald Trump has struggled over the last two weeks.  He sees the biggest drop on the Republican side going from 7.9% to 6.8%.  That is his lowest mark in the last 4 weeks.

Bush’s and Trump’s drops seem to have gone to Marco Rubio.  Rubio had the largest jump on the Republican side improving from 3.8% to 5.8%.  That was enough to have him jump back into the top 5 ahead of Bernie Sanders.

Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson continued to make noise, both jumping two spots to 7th and 8th place respectively.

Scott Walker surprised everyone with when he announced he was withdrawing.  His odds dropped from 2.2% and 7th place to 1.3% and 10th place. Walker was once one of the top candidates and was in 4th place between February and August.

Here are the full odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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The winner of the second Republican debate appears to be Carly Fiorina. Her probability jumped from 1.2% to 2.1%.  That was enough to for her to jump over Ben Carson for 9th place overall.  She is also within 0.1% from both John Kasich and Scott Walker.

It appears Donald Trump may be losing momentum: He was up the this week’s gain of 0.2% is his smallest in two months.   He is still securely in third place behind Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton.

Ben Carson continued his momentum gaining 0.3% to 1.8% strengthening his position in the top 10.

Recent struggles continued for Scott Walker and Rand Paul.  Walker dropped 0.2% to 2.2%.  That puts him in 7th place overall but it his his lowest percentage since the end of January.

Ran Paul dropped from 11th to 14th.  Just four weeks ago Paul was in 9th place and nine weeks ago he was in 6th place.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to have a strong but shrinking lead.  She drops another 2.2% to 39.4%.  That is her lowest percentage in over 5 months.

Bernie Sanders has the biggest jump of the week from 4.2% to 5.3%.  That was enough for him to jump over Joe Biden for 4th place.

Biden continued his momentum as well improving by 0.4% to 5.1%.  Over the last 12 weeks he has more than doubled his odds.

Here is a list of all the candidates:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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