The biggest news of the week was Joe Biden announcing he would not be running.  Biden who was as high as 3rd two weeks ago and 5th last week dropped out of the odds.

Hillary Clinton combined Biden’s dropout with her own momentum to jump to 56.2%, by far her highest point of the campaign. (She was at 43.4 the previous week and the previous high was in August at 47.5%)

The other big mover was Marco Rubio who gained 0.5% and jumped into 2nd place ahead of Jeb Bush for 2nd overall. Rubio’s jump into second was more a function of Jeb Bush continuing to fall.

Bush dropped by 1.9% to 7.0%.  He has now dropped for 5 straight weeks and is not in second place for the first time since November 2014, when Rubio was in 2nd place.

Donald Trump dropped 0.7% to 6.8%.  That drops him from 3rd place to 4th place as he was jumped by Rubio.

Bernie Sanders continues to be strong up 0.1% to 6.0% and in 5th place overall.

Carly Fiorina dropped by 0.9% to 1.7%.  That was enough to allow Ben Carson to overtake her for 6th place.

Ted Cruz was able to move from 12th place to 9th place.

Here’s he full odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 943

Hillary Clinton was up 3.6% to 43.4% post the first Democratic debate.   Clinton seems to have regained momentum now up for a third straight week and reaching her highest probability since the beginning on September.

The debates seems not to only have helped Clinton, but the overall odds of the Democrats capturing the White House.  The combined odds of Democratic candidates increased from 58.5% to 60.3%.

The biggest loser on the night seems to have been Joe Biden.  Biden has not declared yet if he is running, but the need for him to run seems to have declined with Clinton’s performance.  He dropped from 8.2% and third overall to 7% and 5th overall.

Despite Clinton’s performance, Bernie Sanders managed to improve from 5.3% to 5.9%, his all time high.  He remains in 6th place overall.

Jeb Bush continued to lead the odds on the Republican side but now has dropped for four straight weeks.  He came in at 8.9% from 9.7% last week and 12.6% four weeks ago.

Donald Trump has regained momentum jumping from 5th place back to 3rd place at 7.6%, hopping over both Biden and Marco Rubio.

Rubio declined by 0.2% to 7.5% but stayed in 4th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 874

For the second straight week Hillary Clinton improves.  She was up 0.6% to 39.8%.  That widened the gap slightly over her Democratic rivals.

Joe Biden continued to improve.  He gained 0.5% to 8.2% and is still in 3rd place.

Bernie Sanders also improved.  He gained 0.3% to 5.3% and continued to be in 6th place overall.

On the Republican side, Jeb Bush continues to be in 2nd place overall but for the 3rd straight week his odds declined.  He drops 1.2% to 9.7%.  In those three weeks he has lost 3% and now has both Marco Rubio and Donald Trump right on his heels.

Rubio was up again, this week by 0.5% to 7.7%.  He is still in 4th place overall.

Trump was up for the first time in 4 weeks.  He improved 0.4% to 7.1%.  He remains in 5th place.

Michael Bloomberg was the biggest mover after speculation (mostly from an interview with hedge fund manager Bill Ackman) he may be running.  Bloomberg tripled his odds to 1.5%.  That was enough to move him from 16th place to 10th place.  He has moved up 3 weeks in a row from 34th place into the top 10.

Here are the overall odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 875