Category Archives: Weld 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bennett 2020, Biden 2020, Trump 2020, Weld 2020

Trump’s Odds Settling in at New High; Biden’s odds improve again as Trump proclaims him as the likely Democratic candidate; Weld, the sole and long shot Republican competitor, increases odds; Bennet’s sees odds lift as he is attacked from his left

Donald Trump’s odds seem to have settled around a new high at 2.18X. He has been at these odds the last three weeks. They are roughly 50% higher than his low at 3.46X back in Sept 2017.

Although the primaries have not even started, the past few weeks have made the election seem like a contest between Trump and Biden. Trump says he sees parallels between his 2016 candidacy and Biden’s in 2020. Biden’s odds continued improving, moving from 6.26X last week to 6.11X, another new high for anyone not named Trump. He has now improved the last 4 weeks.

Bill Weld has been ignored as a primary challenger to Trump. His odds have been improving the last couple of weeks jumping from 181.7X and 61st place three weeks ago, to 132.8X and 26th place, to this week’s 119.2X and 20th place. He passed fellow Republican and Trump critic John Kasich with this latest improvement.

Michael Bennet has been in the race for only a week, but he’s already being attacked from his left. Could the attack ads help position him as a moderate? His odds improved during the week from 152.6X and 35th place to 130.3X and 24th place. These are his best odds in 6 weeks.


Below is the list of 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Weld 2020

Trump’s odds see slight increase and reach another new high after release of redacted Mueller report; Buttigieg and Sanders remain hottest names, coming at the expense of Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke; Bill Weld makes his primary challenge of Trump official

There was very little impact to Donald Trump’s odds from the release of the redacted Mueller report, as they moved from 2.23X to 2.20X. This did set a new high for the second straight week.

The two hottest names on the Democratic side remained Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg.

Pete Buttigieg’s gains seem to be coming at the expense of Beto O’Rourke. Just five weeks ago, Buttigieg was in 10th place at 40.5X, he is now at 11.1X (13.0X last week) and just overtook O’Rourke for 5th place overall. Over that same span, Beto has dropped from 8.9X to the current 13.8X. Buttigieg finally made his official entry to the field last week and has been the “surprise of the Democratic field”.

Nine weeks ago Kamala Harris was the darling of the left at 6.4X, more than twice the odds of Bernie Sanders who was at 16.3X (behind Harris, Biden, and Beto). Sanders then made it official and raised $6 million in the next 24 hours. He has continued to improve his odds at the expense of Harris. His odds rose this week from 6.89X to 6.74X. Harris dropped from 7.66X to 8.46X. This week, Sanders made the unexpected move of going to Fox for a Townhall. It became the most watched townhall of this election season.

Bill Weld finally made his challenge of Trump for the Republican nomination official. He is a long-shot to say the least. His odds are at 140.5X which puts him in 38th place overall. To give some perspective, there are 5 other Republicans with higher odds ahead of him: Mike Pence (12th place 63X), Nikki Haley (14th place 82X), Ben Shapiro (20th place 105X), John Kasich (25th place at 117X, coincidentally, he was thought of as most likely to challenge Trump and his odds dropped this week from 105X), and Mitt Romney (27th place 125X).

Here are the full odds:

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