Category Archives: Warren 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Small odds improvement results in another new high for Trump; Biden strengthens lead while Sanders continues hot streak; Warren’s slowing momentum reflected in fundraising; Buttigieg’s odds continue downward trend with attacks from his left and right

Donald Trump’s odds had a small move up this week but that helped him reach another new high. Trump’s odds improved from 1.88X to 1.85X. His previous high was 1.86X reached two weeks ago. Interestingly, his odds against the top 5 Democrats decreased a bit from 52.0% to 51.7%, as the Democratic odds consolidated to the top. The odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 2.03X to 1.98X.

The top two Democrats continued their hot streak. Joe Biden has recently focused on Iowa and that seems to be helping his fortunes. His odds improved from last week’s 5.98X to 5.51X. These are his highest odds in over 6 months. His odds have now improved in 9 of the last 11 weeks.

Bernie Sanders continued his post heart attack momentum and had a blowout fundraising quarter. His odds for the week improved from 8.83X to 7.66X. He has now improved for 12 weeks in a row and he now has his highest odds since the middle of May 2019.

Just as Biden and Bernie continued to improve, rivals Warren and Buttigieg continued their recent declines. Warren raised less money in Q4 than in Q3 and only two thirds of what Sanders raised. Her odds for the week dropped from 12.2X to 13.0X. That is 12 straight weeks of declines (same number of weeks as Bernie’s improvements). These are her lowest odds since the middle of June.

Pete Buttigieg’s rise in October and November made him a target for both other Democrats and Trump over the last month. Warren and Sanders supporters pointed out his relationship with the 1%, while the President began accusing him of being a “Pretend Christian”. Despite Buttigieg’s strong fundraising (ahead of Biden), these attacks from both sides seem to be having a negative impact on his odds. He dropped this week from 15.3X to 16.9X. This is his fifth drop in a row and his lowest point in 11 weeks.

A couple of disconnects between odds and news occurred this week for Bloomberg and Yang.

Michael Bloomberg has spent a fortune on advertising and that is having an impact. A recent poll showed him tied for third with Warren. His odds however have dropped in recent weeks from 14.8X to begin December to the current 17.6X.

Andrew Yang had an impressive grassroots fundraising effort in Q4, but his odds dropped from 15.7X to 17.6X, his lowest in 6 weeks.

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds for anyone with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Haley 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds reach new highs as Articles of Impeachment pass the House; Democratic debate results in wins for Biden, Klobuchar, and Sanders and setbacks for Buttigieg and Warren

Trump’s Odds jumped to an all-time high this week with the House passing the Articles of Impeachment. This may be due to the fact that no unexpected revelations came out, and now Trump can look to having the process move to a “homecourt” game in the Senate. The odds rose from 2.00X to 1.86X. Previous high was 1.90X in August 2019. That was reached after Mueller made his testimony to Congress. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved from 49.8% to 52.3% as their collective odds dropped from 1.99X to 2.04X.

Speaking of the Democrats, the day after the Articles of Impeachment were handed down, the Democrats, held their 6th debate with the smallest field so far of 7 candidates. Based on surveys before and after the debate, Joe Biden seemed to come away the winner. The odds seem to reflect this as he had the biggest improvement in odds from 6.7X to 6.2X, his best odds since June.

According to the same survey, Pete Buttigieg did the worst. Every debate seems to have the hot candidate in the cross-hairs of the rest of the field. This time Buttigieg took the incoming fire, and he managed to be the only one who’s net favorability fell, according to the survey. He also had the biggest drop in odds from 10.6X to 14.0X. This dropped him from 4th place to 5th place overall, as Warren, whose odds also slipped from 11.4X to 12.2X, managed to pass him by. These are the lowest odds Buttigieg has had in 7 weeks.

Some other interesting movements:

  • Amy Klobuchar had a good debate and her odds jumped from 58.3X to 55.3X, her best odds since May. This allowed her to jump into 10th place overall.
  • Elizabeth Warren’s odds decreased for the 10th straight week. They dropped this week from 11.4X to 12.2X. This is the lowest she’s been since June.
  • The improvement in Trump odds meant other Republicans saw a big drop. Mike Pence dropped from 44.5X to 54.5X, his highest since the end of September.
  • Nikki Haley was the other Republican to see a drop from 52.5X to 71.4X, which is her lowest since the same week as Pence.
  • Tulsi Gabbard, who did not qualify for the debate, saw her odds drop from 75.1X to 94.6X. She was the only Democrat not to vote for the impeachment. She voted “Present”.

Here is an odds scoreboard of how the odds changed due to the debate:

A trend of the top 5 candidates:

Odds of all candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds jump to 16 week high; Bernie’s momentum continues, as he jumps Buttigieg for second place among Democrats; Clinton speculation helps push her odds to a 2 1/2 year high; Biden’s odds continue slow improvement, now at a 3 months high

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Donald Trump’s odds saw a significant jump for the second straight week, this time from 2.14X to 2.00X. These are his best odds since the end of August. Although recent headlines have been around impeachment, history has shown a strong economy makes it nearly impossible to unseat an incumbent, and recent economic numbers have erased speculation of a recession. The top 5 Democrats saw a drop from 1.92X to 1.99X meaning it’s now almost a tossup between them and Trump.

For the second straight week Bernie Sanders seems to have the momentum for the Democrats. His odds rose from 10.1X to 9.2X. These are his best odds in 6 months. Last week he jumped Warren. This week he passed Buttigieg. Some may underestimate him, but others are beginning to take notice.

The other Democratic candidate to jump this week is Hillary Clinton as buzz that she may run continued. This week it was comments by former Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris. Her odds improved from 29.4X to 24.3X. These are her highest odds in over 2 1/2 years.

Biden was able to stay fairly flat up from 6.95X to 6.73X. He’s been quietly reasserting his lead. This is now a 14 week high for him.

All other top Democratic candidates saw a drop with Buttigieg dropping from 9.0X to 10.6X, a five week low. Warren from 10.2X to 11.4X, a 6 months low. Bloomberg from 14.8X to 15.8X, a 3 week low.

Here is the list of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot and a recent trend of the top candidates:

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