Category Archives: Warren 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Garcetti 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump Sees First Dip in 20 Weeks; Warren Standout at Netroots Nation; Bloomberg Most Likely Centrist? Garcetti to Decide After Midterms

After 20 straight weeks of his odds improving, Donald Trump finally saw a dip.  His odds dropped from 2.31X to 2.33X.  That is still the second highest he has been at this whole cycle and is still nearly 5 times more likely to get elected as the next competitor.

Elizabeth Warren was the standout at Netroots Nation and is seen by many as the darling of the left. Her odds once again improved from 14.0X to 13.5X.  These are her highest odds in 19 weeks.  She remains in 4th place behind both Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders but ahead of Joe Biden for the Democrats.

The most likely “centrist” for either party continues to be Michael Bloomberg. His odds improved from 48.4X to 42.5X.  These are his best odds in 18 weeks.  He is slowly making his move up from 15th place five weeks ago to 11th place this week.

Eric Garcetti says he’ll decide on whether he is running after the midterms.  TMZ is more confident about him running. His odds improved from 62.8X to 54.7X.  That is a new high and moves him from 24th place to 15th place.

Here are the full odds:

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2018 Elections, 2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Patrick 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Remain at All Time Highs; Warren Helped by Trump’s Attacks; Booker and Patrick to Visit TX

Donald Trump’s odds remained at 2.40X for the second straight week, an all time high. That is nearly 5 times the next closest competitor and 6.5 times better than the next closest Republican, Mike Pence.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds improved to 14.5X from 14.7X.  That was enough to have her jump over Joe Biden into 4th place overall.  She seems to be Trump’s favorite target, which of course helps her on the left. She had been as high as 2nd place for a few weeks back in February.

Cory Booker is considered another front runner for the Democrats.  His odds dropped slightly from 30.2X to 31.3X.  Those are his lowest odds of the cycle.  He is currently in 9th place.  He peaked at 19.6X and 5th place shortly after the 2016 election.  Regardless of the odds, his actions seem to indicate he will be running, including planning to speak at a fundraising dinner in TX in September.

Speaking of TX and Democrats, another candidate, Deval Patrick will be there campaigning for Democrats this weekend. Patrick’s odds improved this week from 54.7X to 52.5X moving him from 22nd to 21st place.  This is the highest he has been in 6 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Gillibrand 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Hold Steady at One Year Highs; Kamala Harris’ Candidacy Needs Work Back in CA; Warren Continues to Drift Down; Gillibrand Continues to Increase Profile

For the 4th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds remained flat at 2.77X.  These have been his high for over a year.   This is basically the same odds as the next 9 Republican candidates combined, meaning about a 50/50 shot of being the Republican nominee.

Kamala Harris improved slightly from 12.7X to 12.5X and remains in third overall.  Harris seems to be better known as a national name than a local CA name.  That may be problematic come primary time as CA has moved up its primary.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds continued to drift down after announcing she intends on finishing her second term if reelected in the fall.  She was at 13.0X at that time and dropped to 13.8X. This was followed by 14.3X last week, and the current at 14.7X. She remains in 4th place overall.

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to increase her profile as evidenced by this GQ article.  Her odds improved from 24.7X to 23.8X.  That puts her in 7th place overall, an area she’s occupied for six of the last eight weeks when she capitalized on the #MeToo movement.

Here are the full odds:

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