Category Archives: Warren 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Schultz 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds decline to lowest in 11 months; Kamala Harris reaches new highs; Sanders set to announce; Schultz running as independent? Pete Buttigieg makes it official, makes debut in odds

Donald Trump’s odds continued their slow decline. He has been down the past 11 weeks, with this week dropping from 2.90X to 2.96X. These are his lowest odds in 11 months. He is now slightly more than twice as likely to win as his next closest competitor Kamala Harris. It will be interesting to see if this trend changes next week with the shutdown ending on Friday. Over the 5 weeks of the shutdown, his net approval rating has gone from around -10% to the current -17%.

Kamala Harris’ odds have been heading in the opposite direction. She was up this week from 7.17X to 6.57X. These are the highest odds ANYONE other than Trump has had this cycle. She has been up the past 6 weeks and has sucked up all the 2020 Democratic coverage the last two weeks.

Bernie Sanders appears to be set to announce he is running. His odds jumped from 20.7X to 17.1X, his highest in 3 months. This was enough to jump him ahead of Elizabeth Warren for 5th place overall.

It appears Howard Schultz will announce he is thinking about running as an independent on 60 minutes. His odds have been up the last few weeks, with this week coming in at 84.5X from last week’s 87.5X. That was enough to move him from 32nd place to 29th place.

Another week, another candidate makes it official. Pete Buttigieg, the 37 year old mayor of South Bend Indiana, threw his name in. With that, he makes his debut in the odds at 103.6X which puts him in 42nd place.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s odds continue slow decline giving life to the odds of other Republicans; Beto stays hot and takes lead for the Democrats; Former Democratic favorite Warren continues decline, now 6th overall

Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop moving from 2.61X to 2.65X.  He has now dropped for five straight weeks and his odds are their lowest since June.

The recent drops appear to have given life to the odds of Republican alternatives, as a group of them jumped all of a sudden including:

  • Mike Pence from 25.7X to 23.5X
  • Paul Ryan from 83.2X to 78.2X
  • Mitt Romney from 93.3X to 80.8X
  • Marco Rubio from 96.4X to 94.1X
  • Scott Walker from 101.2X to 97.8X
  • Ted Cruz from 115.3X to 110.9X
  • Tom Cotton from 115.4X to 73.9X
  • Ben Sasse from 124.3X to 119.5X

Beto O’Rourke has been the hottest name in the betting odds, and that has seemed to translate to mainstream political pundits, as CNN ranks him second among Democrats for 2020. His odds improved again this time from 8.22X to 7.71 times.  That was enough to have him jump over Kamala Harris to become the odds favorite for Democrats.

The person that has seen the biggest drop recently has been Elizabeth Warren.  In a recent poll, she has dropped to 7th overall for the Democrats. Her odds dropped again this week from 18.1X to 20.1X.  That dropped her to 5th overall in odds for the Democrats.  She was in 2nd place among the Democrats and at 11.5X merely seven weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 683
2020 Weekly Odds, Brown 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds Improve Despite Gains for the Democrats on Election Night; Sherrod Brown the Big Winner on Election Night and in the Odds; Beto’s Odds Skyrocket Despite Defeat while Warren’s Drop After her Reelection

There were many changes in the odds post the midterm elections.

Despite the Democratic gains in the House and many thinking the elections were more about Trump than the Republicans,  Donald Trump’s odds still improved from the prior week.  His odds rose from 2.50X to 2.43X.  That is the 3rd straight week of gains and his highest odds in 11 weeks.

Perhaps the biggest winner on Tuesday night was Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.  The swing from Trump’s Ohio victory to Brown’s victory this year was an impressive 14.5%. His odds jumped from 78.9X to 54.7X and he moved from 33rd place to 15th place.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds dropped dramatically from 11.5X to 14.1X.  These are her worst odds in 15 weeks.  Warren won reelection to her second term rather easily and said it’s too early to decide about 2020.

Beto ORourke lost his Senate race to Ted Cruz on Tuesday but his odds skyrocketed from 21.4X to 11.2X.  That was enough to lift him to third place overall behind just Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.  His closer than expected loss on Tuesday fueled optimism from his admirers that he will run.

Here are the full odds:

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Views – 675