Jeb Bush had the biggest jump in odds, moving from a 6.5% probability to 8.5% after the Facebook announcement that he would explore running in 2016.

He remains in second place far behind Hillary Clinton who is at 40.1% probability.  Bush has more than doubled his odds from early November, and now has more than twice the probability of the next candidate, Marco Rubio at 4.2%.

Rubio has been drifting down since peaking at 5.1% in October.   Rubio is making headlines this week in his fight with the 5th place candidate Rand Paul (3.1%) over the new diplomatic relations with Cuba.

On the Democratic side, Martin O’Malley has moved into 10th place overall jumping over Scott Walker who had seen a post election surge.  O’Malley has not announced his intentions but will wait until the spring like many other Democratic candidates waiting to see what happens with Hillary Clinton.

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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This weeks odds show very little changes at the top with Hillary Clinton continuing to lead at 40.4% probability, with the closest Democrat, Elizabeth Warren coming in at 6th with 2.6%.

Jeb Bush continues to be the strongest in the Republican field at 6.5% with Marco Rubio (4.5%), Chris Chrisitie (3.9%), and Rand Paul (3.3%) rounding out the top 5.

Two minor changes in the top 20:

Kirsten Gillibrand swaps spots with her fellow NY Democrat Andrew Cuomo.  She is now 13th overall and 5th for the Democrats.

Bobby Jindal moves up to 15th place and 9th overall for the Republicans.  He is one of the most prepared among the candidates for the run.  The Washington Post even lists him as the 7th most likely candidate for the Republicans.

Here are the overall results

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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Hillary Clinton’s odds continued to drift up with a probability of 40.5% vs. prior week’s 40.2%.  This is the highest she has been seen August.

On the Republican side Mitt Romney has been quietly moving up.  This week he bumps Joe Biden aside for 7th place.  That is the highest he has been.  Romney was as low as 17th place back in September when he insisted he is not running.

Overall, Jeb Bush continues to lead the Republicans at 6.5% with Marco Rubio and Chris Christie trailing at 4.5% and 4.0% respectively. and Paul (3.3%) and Mitt Romney (2.2%) round out the top 5 for the Republicans.

On the Democratic side, Tim Kaine (Senator from Virginia) has improved from 28th place in November to 22nd this week, although he remains a long shot: his probability is at a mere 1.0% and is 10th place as far as the Democrats.

The main Democratic Challengers for Hillary remain Elizabeth Warren (2.7%), Joe Biden (2.1%), Martin O’Malley (1.6%), Andrew Cuomo (1.5%), and Kirsten Gillibrand (1.4%).

Here’s the full odds

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