Mitt Romney’s announcement that he will not run was the biggest 2016 news this week.  As a result he drops from 5th place to 7th place and gets passed by Rand Paul for 5th and Elizabeth Warren for 6th.  His continued presence in the top 10 suggests either some believe he will jump back in or some of the oddsmakers are slow to react.

The two big beneficiaries were Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio who combined picked up more than what Romney lost.  Bush now has 10% odds (the first person other than Hillary Clinton to have double digits).  Rubio’s 4.6% probability is less than half of Bush’s.

Scott Walker was also a  big gainer improving by 0.3% to 1.8% which puts him at 9th place passing Paul Ryan.  This is the highest Walker has been.  He currently has a slight lead in Iowa based on a recent poll

Rand Paul saw a 0.2% drop and is now at his lowest point since August, although his 2.9% puts him in 5th place.

Ben Carson jumped from 43rd to 30th place.  He is seen as the “outsider” on the GOP side and has managed to connect with the conservative voters. He has yet to decide if he is running.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead but had a 0.8% drop to 38.1%.  Her lowest since November.

Jim Webb jumped from 48th to 23rd place.  Webb has been quiet recently after announcing an exploratory committee late last year.  He is recovering from knee replacement surgery.

Here’s the full odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1057

Hillary Clinton continued to hold a big lead at 38.9% while Mitt Romney continued to improve on the Republican side.  His modest 0.1% was enough to increase his total to 3.2%, allowing him to jump Rand Paul for 5th place.

Scott Walker is back in the top 10 as it’s looking more and more like he may run. He replaces Democrat Martin O’Malley who is also seriously considering a run.

Rick Perry continues to tumble moving from 28th to 32nd with only a 0.7% chance of winning.  He reached as high as #4 in August.

Sarah Palin made some headlines says she is “seriously interested” in running. What do the oddsmakers think? She moved up from 42nd to 37th at 0.6% probability.

Here’s the full list

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1036

While Hillary Clinton has maintained her big lead over other candidates, the field behind her has become very volatile driven by news and speculation on who’s running.

December was the month that Jeb Bush announced he would explore running.  His Odds doubled  from 4.9% to end November to last week’s 9.8%

Now it’s Mitt Romney’s turn.  He announced that he is giving serious thought to running earlier in the week.  His odds as a result shot up from 2.3% to 3.1%.  He is now 6th overall swapping spots with Elizabeth Warren.  What’s interesting is to look at who his increase in odds came at the expense of:

Jeb Bush accounted for 0.2% of the 0.8% although he maintained his large lead for second place at 9.6%

Marco Rubio and Chris Christie each lost 0.1% but maintained their spots as 3rd and 4th place candidates.

Rand Paul was not affected

Paul Ryan, Romney’s former VP candidate, saw the biggest drop.  He lost 0.3% dropping to just 1.5%. He remained in 9th place but has seen consistent erosion since peaking at 4th place in the summer at a high of 3.9%.

Rob Portman has been declining over the last few weeks as it has become obvious he will be running for re-election to the Senate than for President.  He is now in 23rd place after being at 15th just a couple of months back.

Ben Carson dropped from 41st to 44th perhaps due to some ISIS comments he made

Here’s the update odds for the entire field

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1112