Hillary Clinton continues to have a big but shrinking lead.  She is now at 37.6%, the lowest since Sept ’14 but still more than three times her next closest competitor.  Jeb Bush is second at 11.6% up 0.1% from the prior week and 2% from 5 weeks ago.

The biggest mover continues to be Scott Walker who stays in 4th place but is up 0.5% to 3.6%.  He was at only 1.5% 5 weeks ago.

There is some movement for some of the potential Democratic candidates.

Martin O’Malley moved up to 11th from 12th passing Paul Ryan who continues to fall.  O’Malley is hosting an “issues summit” which can lead to his formal candidacy.

Daval Patrick continues to move up, this week reaching 15th.  Back in the summer he was in the 40s.

Jim Webb has also seen a recent surge, moving up to 22nd this week from 48th in January.  He claims he would run if he can raise enough money without “selling out”

Here is the full list of odds:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 927

For the last few weeks, Scott Walker has been the hottest candidate.  He is up from 11th 4 weeks ago and 9th 2 weeks ago to 4th place overall this week as he moved ahead of Chris Christie and Rand Paul.  His odds have more than doubled in 3 weeks from 1.5% to 3.1%.

Jeb Bush continues to be the odds on favorite for the Republicans and had a big move up this week from 10.0% to 11.5%.  He has a higher probability than the next three candidates combined (Rubio 4.5%, Walker 3.1%, Christie 3.1%). His money raising efforts have kicked into high gear especially since Mitt Romney left the race.

Hillary Clinton continues to be the odds on favorite at 38.0% (as much as the next 13 candidates combined!), but that is the lowest she has been at since November.

Paul Ryan has been drifting down and he is now at his lowest point dropping to 11th place behind Andrew Cuomo at just 1.3%.  Ryan peaked in June 2014 in 4th place overall and at 3.9%.

Here is the updated odds by candidate:

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 922

The last few months have been very quiet on the Democratic side with Hillary Clinton continuing to lead the overall race with a 38.4% probability.  Her closest Democratic competitors have continued to be Elizabeth Warren (2.6%, 7th overall), Joe Biden (1.8%, 9th), Andrew Cuomo (1.3% 11th), and Martin O’Malley (1.3%, 12th).

The Republican side, in the mean time, has seen a lot of changes.

Mitt Romney has seen the biggest movements.  Three months ago he was in 9th place.  He quickly vaulted to 5th place two weeks ago due to speculation on him running.  The bubble quickly popped as he decided not to run, resulting in this week’s 8th place standing.

This week’s big mover was Scott Walker.  Less than a month ago he was in 11th place but he started gaining momentum and came in last week at 9th place.  This past week saw a dramatic rise from Walker as different polls have led some to anoint him the campaign’s first “it” candidate. He is now 6th overall increasing his probability from 1.5% two weeks ago to 2.7% this week.

There were two other big movers on the Republican side.

Mike Huckabee rose from 27th to 22nd as some controversial gay marriage comments he made this week may have helped him with the social conservative part of the Republican base.

Ben Carson is moving toward the top 25 as well.  He was 43rd only two weeks ago and is now in 27th place.

Here is the entire field with the probabilities.

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 968