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Weekly Odds: Clinton set to announce; Walker, O’Malley, Huckabee Up; Paul and Christie Down

Even with Hillary Clinton set to announce her candidacy on Sunday there was very little change at the top.  Clinton’s odds were up slightly to 39.4%.  This is the highest they have been since first week of January.

The top 10 remained the same although there was movement in the odds.

Scott Walker picked up ground on Jeb Bush as Walker improved by 0.1% to 4.0% while Bush dropped 0.2% to 11.7%.  There was a recent NH poll that showed Walker ahead of Bush in that state.  Bush and Walker remain in 2nd and 4th place respectively.

The other candidate to announce this week was Rand Paul.  The announcement did not help as he dropped 0.1% to 2.6%.  He remains in 5th overall slightly ahead of Elizabeth Warren.

Chris Christie continued his slide dropping to 2.2% from 2.3%.  He has now dropped in 10 straight weeks from 3.4% (4th at the time) to the current 7th place.  Let’s see if he’s able to make a comeback in the spring.

Martin O’Malley is set to announce whether he is running or not in May.  He moved up from 13th place to 11th place, jumping over Democratic rivals Andrew Cuomo and Kirsten Gillibrand.    He is now in 4th place for the Democratic nomination.

Mike Huckabee is up 5 places to 17th place.  Huckabee was in 26th place at the beginning of the year prior to announcing he would leave Fox to consider a run.

Here’s a full list of candidates:

April 11 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1055

Updated Odds: Clinton and Bush Maintain Lead, Carson Picking up Steam, Fiorina Makes Debut

 

Hillary Clinton continues her strong lead.  At 38.8% she is more than 15 times as likely to win her party’s nomination as the next candidate, Elizabeth Warren.  Warren continues to say she is not running although many see her as the best liberal candidate.  Warren was down on the week from 2.6% to 2.5%.

At 11.9%, Jeb Bush is nearly 3 times as likely a candidate as his next republican competitor Marco Rubio at 4.3%.

Scott Walker, the hottest recent candidate seems to have cooled off.  He drops from 4.1% to 3.9%, his lowest probability in a month. He remains safely in 4th place overall.

Chris Christie continues to decline at 2.3% from 2.4%.  This is the lowest he has been since August 2014. He remains in 7th overall.

Ben Carson rises from 23rd to 18th place as he is expected to announce his candidacy first week of May.

Another candidate expected to announce is Carly Fiorina who says there’s more than a 90% chance she will run. She makes her debut in 26th place.

Here’s the full list of candidates:

April 4 2015 pres odds

 

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1107

Updated Weekly Odds: Bush Resumes Upward Trend. Cruz, Warren, and Carson up. Christie Down.

Hillary Clinton maintains her her position as the big leader at 38.7%, but Jeb Bush appears to have resumed his upward trend improving to 11.9% from 11.4%.   This is the highest a 2nd place candidate has been up to this point.

Chris Christie has been slowly trending down.  Just 9 weeks ago he was at 3.4% and 4th overall.  This week he drops from 6th place to 7th place and now only has a 2.4% probability.  He is replaced in 6th place by Elizabeth Warren.

Ted Cruz has certainly received a lot of attention for being the first person to formally announce.  The big bump came last week with rumors of his announcement.  The interviews afterwards only bumped his odds from 1.3% to 1.4% which solidified his 10th place standing from last week.

Ben Carson moved up from 28th to 23rd place as his regular column hinted at a Carson Presidency.   This is the highest he has been seen August 2014.

Donald Trump also saw a slight jump moving from 46th to 44th possibly due to the media appearances he made as a result of Cruz’s announcement.

Here is the full list of candidates.

March 28 2015 pres odds

 

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1079