Hillary Clinton continued to have a strong but declining lead.

The updated forecast has Clinton leading Donald Trump 300-238. Trump has cut the lead by 12 points in the last week and by 46 over the last month.

This week the gains have come from polls in NJ, NH, and GA:

• A NJ poll showed Clinton +4.  The prior two were +7 and +11.  This shrinking lead caused the state to move from solid D to likely D
• A NH poll showed a tie after the previous Clinton +2.  That moved the state from lean D to tossup
• A GA poll had Trump +7 after the previous polls had Trump +4 and +3.  That moved GA from lean R to likely R.

Other polls merely confirmed the current status of states:

• 2 CA polls one Clinton +12 and one Clinton +24 confirmed CA as solid D
• A NY poll with Clinton +21 confirmed state as solid D
• MI poll with Clinton +4 kept MI likely D for the moment (prior polls at +10 and +11)

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

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As we get closer to the conventions, odds for the VP candidates have become more plentiful.  According to the odds, here’s the most likely candidates for both parties.

On the Republican side, the clear favorite is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.  He has the same probability as the next 5 combined.

The next three are current Senators: Joni Ernst (Iowa), Bob Corker (Tennessee), and Jeff Sessions (Alabama).

The next three ran against Trump for the nomination: Chris Christie (one of the first to support Trump after dropping out), John Kasich, and Ben Carson.

Here’s a list of the top 20:

The list is shorter and without as clear of a favorite for the Democrats.

Julian Castro, current Secretary of HUD and former Mayor of San Antonio, is the odds on favorite at 22.9%.  The Democrats have groomed Castro as part of the next generation of leaders of the party the last few years.

Two Senators come in second and third in Tim Kaine of Virginia and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.  Warren and Trump are already involved in a Twitter war of words.

Current Secretary of Labor Tom Perez is in 4th followed by Bernie Sanders in 5th.  Bernie Sanders is a great fit to unite the Democrats but might be unlikely given the current state of affairs between his camp and the Democratic leadership.

Here is a list of the top Democratic candidates:

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

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Hillary Clinton continued to lead although she once again saw a drop.  Clinton is now at 60.9% down from 64.7%.  It was a tough week for her with the Inspector General releasing a report on her use of email that contradicts her position.  Clinton has now dropped for four straight weeks after peeking at the end of April at 68.4%.

Donald Trump continued to close the gap by improving his odds to 29.9% from 28.2%.  He sets another new high.  Trump has more than doubled his odds since the second week of April when he was at 14.1%.

The bad news for Clinton seems to have given Bernie Sanders some more life.  His odds improve from 3.7% to 4.1%.   That is the highest he has been in six weeks.

The surprise move in odds was driven by Joe Biden who all of a sudden jumped from 2.1% to 3.7%.  The jump is most likely driven by the Clinton troubles and speculation by Trump about the Democrats pushing Biden in should things get worse for Clinton.

Mitt Romney also saw his odds increase from 0.4% to 0.6% as some speculate about him running as a third party candidate.

Here are the current odds along with a trend of the now top four candidates:

For an updated state by state forecast of the election click here

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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