Despite the Airport bombing in Afghanistan, Biden’s odds rebounded from last week’s fault, improving from 4.71X to 4.56X. This is slightly worse than the cycle high of 4.55X from two weeks ago, prior to the beginning of the Afghanistan evacuation.
Donald Trump saw a large jump from 6.87X to 5.97X, a second new high in a row. At this pace he will catch Harris for second place next week.
Kamala Harris resumed her downward trend from 5.30X to 5.53X, a new low. She has declined in 7 of the last 8 weeks.
Joe Biden’s odds dropped for the first time in 10 weeks from 4.55X to 4.71X as scenes from the evacuation of Americans from Kabul played every day for over a week.
Kamala Harris’ odds saw a small improvement (less than Biden’s drop) from 5.40X to 5.30X. This is still below where she was two weeks ago.
Donald Trump was the big winner on the week. His odds improved from 7.63X to 6.87X, a new high for 2024. His previous new high was 7.11X mid December 2020.
The second biggest gainer on the week was Pete Buttigieg. His odds improved from 37.0X to 34.3X. These are his best odds since mid February. This was enough to have him improve from 10th place overall to 8th place, his highest of the cycle and where he was in February.
Joe Biden’s odds continued to improve, perhaps not yet accounting for this weekend’s events in Afghanistan/Kabul evacuation of embassy employees. They improved from 4.85X to 4.55X, another new high and an improvement for a 9th straight week.
Kamala Harris continued her recent drop, this week from 5.24X to 5.40X. This is her 6th drop in a row and a new low.
Donald Trump’s odds have been improving but at a slower rate than Biden’s. His odds this week improved to 7.63X from 7.71X. These are high highest odds since in 12 weeks.
Ron DeSantis, the candidate that has improved the most this year among the top tier, saw a drop from 12.2X to 12.5X, his lowest odds in 5 weeks. His profile continues to increase as a part of his states COVID policies, although this week Florida reached a new high in infections and hospitalizations. That might be hurting his odds.
