After four straight weeks of odds at 2.55X, Donald Trump’s odds improved this week to 2.52X, his highest in 5 weeks. He has been in a tight range of 2.45X to 2.55X the last 8 weeks.

They say actions speak louder than words and the most telling action of someone that is running is appearances in Iowa.  Montana Governor Steve Bullock was in Iowa this week to help Democrats campaign.  His odds improved from 94.6X to 90.5X.  That was enough to move him from 49th place to 41st place.  This is the highest he has been.

The leading Democratic candidate contender (based on odds) for the nomination, Kamala Harris, was also in Iowa.  Her odds improved as well from 8.75X to 8.37X.  These are the second highest odds behind the 7.74X she was at 3 weeks ago.

Tulsi Gabbard’s odds saw a jump this week.  An adviser to the Hawaii Democrat has reportedly been reaching out to potential staff.  Her odds bounced from 40.2X to 34.9X.  These are the highest odds Gabbard has had and put her in 11th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

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Donald Trump’s odds remained unchanged for the fourth straight week at 2.55X.  These are his lowest odds since June but well above his average for the cycle of 2.88X.  He remains more than 3x as likely to win as his next closest competitor.

Elizabeth Warren made news this week by releasing DNA test results showing she is part American Indian.  What most agree on is this was  a step towards running in 2020. What is debatable is whether this helped her or not.  Some thought she played right into Trump’s hands, which will cause her to lose if she is the nominee. Her odds showed little movement to the news, coming in at 11.5X.  She’s averaged 11.6X the last 6 weeks. She remains in 3rd place overall.

We reported on Nikki Haley’s odds jumping last week as a result of her resignation.  What we didn’t call out is the impact it had on Mike Pence.  Pence had been at an average of 17.6X for the 3 prior  months.  He dropped last week to 19.0X and this week to 19.4X.  That was enough to drop him to 6th place overall.  Many like  Joe Scarborough, speculate that she resigned to move out of being behind Mike Pence inline for President whether it’s 2020 or 2024.

Julian Castro gave a clear indication that he is running in an interview with Rolling Stone saying “I’m likely to do it”. His odds improved from 73.5X to 69.9X.  These are his best odds in 9 weeks. He moved up to 29th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

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For the third straight week, Donald Trump’s odds came in at 2.55X.  Although they seem to have stabilized the last three weeks, they are at 18 week lows.  A new poll was released that showed more and more people now see Trump winning in 2020 than before. (March 40% thought he’d win and 54% lose.  That is now 46% win and 47% lose)

There was a disconnect between Joe Biden’s odds and news regarding his candidacy.  The odds decreased from 17.4X to 19.4X, his lowest in 32 weeks.  On the news front, a poll showed that Democrats, by far, currently prefer Biden over other Democratic candidates.

Michael Bloomberg continues to improve with his odds coming in at 28.4X up from 37.2X last week and 50.1X just seven weeks ago.  He is now in 9th place overall.  The news this week is he registered as a Democrat.

Nikki Haley made news this week by resigning as UN Ambassador.  She went out of her way to say she will not run in 2020 and that she supports Trump.  Many see this as a great move for her political future and a 2024 run.  Her odds for 2020 still responded positively however improving from 58.3X to 55.3X., up from 19th place to 17th. There’s always the possibility that Trump doesn’t run, at which point she jumps to the top of the list of people contesting Mike Pence.

Here are the full odds:

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