Donald Trump’s odds remained unchanged for the fourth straight week at 2.55X.  These are his lowest odds since June but well above his average for the cycle of 2.88X.  He remains more than 3x as likely to win as his next closest competitor.

Elizabeth Warren made news this week by releasing DNA test results showing she is part American Indian.  What most agree on is this was  a step towards running in 2020. What is debatable is whether this helped her or not.  Some thought she played right into Trump’s hands, which will cause her to lose if she is the nominee. Her odds showed little movement to the news, coming in at 11.5X.  She’s averaged 11.6X the last 6 weeks. She remains in 3rd place overall.

We reported on Nikki Haley’s odds jumping last week as a result of her resignation.  What we didn’t call out is the impact it had on Mike Pence.  Pence had been at an average of 17.6X for the 3 prior  months.  He dropped last week to 19.0X and this week to 19.4X.  That was enough to drop him to 6th place overall.  Many like  Joe Scarborough, speculate that she resigned to move out of being behind Mike Pence inline for President whether it’s 2020 or 2024.

Julian Castro gave a clear indication that he is running in an interview with Rolling Stone saying “I’m likely to do it”. His odds improved from 73.5X to 69.9X.  These are his best odds in 9 weeks. He moved up to 29th place overall.

Here are the full odds:

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