Category Archives: Uncategorized

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Ryan_Tim 2020, Sanders 2020, Uncategorized

Trump near all time highs; Biden down on allegations; Buttigieg remains hottest name; Sanders leads in fundraising; Tim Ryan enters race

For the second week in a row, Donald Trump’s Odds saw a big increase, this time from 2.41X to 2.35X. His odds have now improved for six straight weeks and are the highest since the middle of August 2018 when they were at 2.33X. His all time high was a few weeks before that at 2.31X near the beginning of August 2018.

As we forecast last week when the news was breaking, allegations of making women feel uncomfortable have negatively impacted Joe Biden’s odds. He dropped from 7.96X to 9.66X. He was at 7.18X, his high for the cycle, just two weeks ago. He is now stating he wants to be the last candidate to announce he is running.

Biden’s misfortune seems to have given Michael Bloomberg’s candidacy some oxygen. Axios reported Bloomberg would enter if Biden falters and the “centrist lane were to open up”. His odds improved from 111.2X to 83.8X and he moved up from 31st place to 15th place. Bloomberg was at 30.8X and in 9th place when he announced he was not running beginning of March.

Once again the hottest name remained Pete Buttigieg. A recent poll had him tied with Elizabeth Warren in 5th place. His odds this week improved from 19.0X to 14.2X, another new high. He was at 76.1X just a month ago and at 104.9X two months ago.

The other Democratic candidate with momentum this week was Bernie Sanders. His odds jumped on the news he led all the candidates in fundraising. He improved from 7.31X to 7.09X. He remains the leading Democratic candidate in the odds.

What’s another week without another Democratic candidate announcing? This week it was Tim Ryan’s turn. The odds for the Ohio Rep. improved from 177.2X to 150.0X, and he jumped from 77th place to 50th place, still a long shot.

Here is the full set of odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Brown 2020, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Merkley 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized

Trump’s odds improve to best in 9 weeks; Sanders remains hot name, reaches new high; Hickenlooper officially announces, quickly raises money; Four high profile candidates officially out

Trump’s odds improved from 2.91X to 2.86X. Although this may not seem like a big improvement, it’s the best odds he has had in 9 weeks. To keep things in perspective, his high for the cycle is 2.31X in August 2018.

Bernie Sanders is currently the hot candidate on the left. He jumped up from 9.18X to 7.06X, a new high for him. This was enough to have him jump the yet undecided Joe Biden (8.39X) for 3rd place. He is just behind Kamala Harris (6.73X) for the Democratic lead. Sanders signed the “Democratic Loyalty Pledge” this week.

John Hickenlooper officially announced his candidacy on Monday and his odds jumped from 73.6X to 66.4X. That was enough for him tomove from 21st place to 14th place. He became the fourth Democrat to raise over $1 million within hours of his announcement.

A few top names officially announced they are NOT running:

Here are the full odds:

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Uncategorized

Trump’s odds flat despite rebound in approval to pre-shutdown levels; Bernie’s odds skyrocket after making it official and raising $6 million in 24 hours; Beto’s odds tank as he approaches a decision; Is Silicon Valley Booker’s strength or Achilles heal?

Donald Trump’s Odds saw a small drop from 2.92X to 2.93X. He has been between 2.90X and 2.96X the last six weeks. His election odds have not recovered in the same manner his net approval rating appears to have to. His net approval was -10% pre shutdown, and got down as far as -17%, and has now rebounded to the -10% range.

Bernie Sanders made his candidacy official and made headlines shortly after by raising $6 million in the first 24 hours. His odds rocketed from 16.3X to 9.7X, his best odds this election cycle. This was enough to vault him from 5th to 3rd place.

Beto O ‘Rourke is days away from making a decision on whether he is running. The betting action might be suggesting either he is not running, or perhaps he may be a VP candidate. His odds tumbled from 10.3X to 12.8X dropping him from 3rd place to 5th place. His odds peaked at below 7.7X in mid January. He was in second place that week.

One of Cory Booker’s strengths is fundraising in Silicon Valley. Could that end up hurting him? His odds improved to 32.7X from 34.8X, as he jumped from 13th place to 11th place. He has been as high as 5th place back at he beginning of the election cycle.

Here are the full odds:

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