This week I’m adding a probability for each candidate based on the relative odds of all candidates combined.

The top 3 candidates remain unchanged:
Clinton +165 / 40.8% probability
Bush and Rubio +1500 / 4.5% probability each

Improved Odds:
Rick Perry moves from 10th place to 7th place. (Odds from +5000 to +3000).  Probability  2.2%
Ted Cruz remains in 10th but improved odds from +5000 to +4000.  Probability 1.7%
Mitt Romney with biggest move this week from 29th to 12th (+8000 to +5000) probability 1.3%

Decreased Odds:
Christie and Ryan remain tied for 4th although both declined from +1800 to +2000 (probability 3.4%)
Joe Biden  declines from +2800 to +3500 (1.9%)
Michael Bloomberg declines from +6000 to +7000 (1.0%)

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

Follow me on twitter for updates @2016ElectOdds

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2016 Presidential Poll released on 7/2 of 578 Michigan voters Clinton ahead of different Republican candidates:

Follow me on twitter for updates @2016ElectOdds

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I’m starting this blog to track the odds of winning the 2016 Presidential Elections on a weekly basis.

I will display the odds and add in commentary about what may have driven the changes from the prior week.

Currently the A Democrat is more likely to be elected (-120) than a Republican (+120).  An independent is a 50 to 1 long-shot (+5000).  These odds have not changed since I started tracking them in the middle of May 2014.

The person with the most likely odds is Hilary Clinton (+165).

Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are tied for 2nd (+1500)

Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are tied for 4th (+1800)

The top possible Independent is Michael Bloomberg (+6000)

There are 51 candidates that are being tracked as far as the odds.

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

Follow me on twitter for updates @2016ElectOdds

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