Category Archives: Uncategorized

Uncategorized

Gallup Favorable vs. Familiarity Ratings for 16 Presidential Candidates

Gallup released some interesting numbers where it combined each candidate’s Favorability rating vs the Familiarity rating.  See chart below.

Some findings:
– Hillary Clinton is obviously the most known of the group (91% familiarity) but she also has the highest net favorability (+19% based on 55% favorable and 36% unfavorable)
– Jeb Bush and Joe Biden are well known but are not well liked.  They need to work to change people’s opinions.
– Mike Huckabee has the highest net favorability rating among the Republicans, and has average familiarity among all the candidates.
– Many Republicans’ favorability is recovering:
  • Ted Cruz was as low as -10 in October 2013 due to the government shutdown.  he is now at +2
  • Chris Christie peaked at +32 in June 2013, but “Bridgegate” brought him down to -9 earlier this year.  He is know at +1
  • Rick Perry got as low as -28 after the poor 2012 presidential debate, with his familiarity peaking at 82%.  It seems now people have forgotten, with his familiarity down to 58% and his favorability is now +6!

– It will be an uphill battle for Rick Santorum and Martin O’Malley as less than 50% of the people know who they are, but those that know them give them an unfavorable rating. 

For all the Gallup numbers click here
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 962

Uncategorized

Fox News Poll – Perry making move in race for Republican nomination

A Fox News Poll conducted 7/20-7/22 has many questions about Obama, Congress, direction of country, etc.

Buried in it are some 2016 Presidential race items:

Republican nomination:
Similar to other polls, it shows the Republican field as a crowded group of 7 candidates with 3% separating 1st from 7th (basically the margin of error)

In this poll Jeb Bush and Rick Perry lead the pack at 12% followed by Rand Paul at 11%, Chris Christie at 10%, and finally Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz at 9%.

The thing that stood out the most was Rick Perry‘s climb from just 3% in the poll taken in December to the 12% in this poll.

The opposite was true of Chris Christie who won the December poll with 16% and dropped down to 10% in the most recent numbers.

Democratic nomination:
It remains a 3 horse race with Hillary Clinton in the lead (64%) followed by Joe Biden (12%) and Elizabeth Warren (9%)

Clinton actually dropped by 4% from December’s 68%
Warren gained 2% up from December’s 7%

Head to Head:
Only 4 head to head matchups were polled
Clinton +10 over Christie (50-40)
Clinton +11 over Paul (52-41)
Clinton +13 over Bush (52-39)
Clinton +19 over John Kasich (54-35).  Kasich only got 2% in the Republican nomination poll.

For the full poll release click here

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates via twitter follow @2016ElectOdds

Views – 880

Uncategorized

CNN Poll with likely nominees and a Romney vs. Obama question

CNN Poll taken 7/18-7/20 of 1,012 adults by Telephone

Republican nomination:
Chris Christie leading possible Republican candidates at 13% followed by Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee at 12% and Rick Perry and Paul Ryan at 11%. Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are next at 8%

Christie and Perry show the biggest gain since their February 2014 poll gaining 3%.
Marco Rubio had the biggest decline from 9% to 6%.
All of these moves are within the poll’s +/- 4.5% sampling error

July 18-20 May 29-June 1 May 2-4 Mar. 7-9 Jan. 31-Feb. 2
Christie 13% 8% 9% 8% 10%
Paul 12% 14% 13% 16% 13%
Huckabee 12% 11% 10% 10% 14%
Perry 11% 6% 8% 11% 8%
Ryan 11% 10% 12% 15% 9%
Bush 8% 12% 13% 9% 10%
Cruz 8% 9% 7% 8% 8%
Rubio 6% 8% 6% 5% 9%
Walker 5% 5% 7% NA NA
Santorum 3% 4% 2% 3% 4%
Someone else 6% 6% 4% 6% 8%
None/No one 2% 2% 4% 4% 3%
No Opinion 3% 5% 7% 5% 4%
Democratic nomination:

No surprise the Hillary Clinton leads by a long shot here at 67%.
What has changed in the last few months has been the emergence of Elizabeth Warren (10%) as the #2 candidate ahead of Joe Biden (8%).
Warren had the biggest improvement in the poll since September 2013 improving by 3% while Biden has decreased by 2%.

                              July 18-20  Nov. 18-20   Sept. 6-8
                                 2014           2013            2013
 Clinton                     67%            63%            65%
 Warren                    10%             7%              7%
 Biden                       8%              12%            10%
 Cuomo                     4%               5%              6%
 O’Malley                   2%               2%              2%
 Someone else (vol.)   6%               6%              4%
 None/No one (vol.)     2%               3%              5%
 No opinion                1%               3%              2%

Romney vs. Obama and Romney vs. Clinton:
One interesting question is if there was an election today, who would you vote for, Romney or Obama?  Romney wins 53% to 44%.

Similar question with Romney vs. Clinton.  Clinton wins 55% to 42%

If you’d like to access the poll for more in depth analysis click here

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates on the 2016 Presidential race, follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1036