Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Gillibrand 2020, Ryan 2020, Trump 2020

Updated 2020 Odds: Trump Continues with Big Lead; Gillibrand with Big Move up; Ryan into top 5

Donald Trump continued to have over a 1 in 4 chance of winning at 25.6%.  The payout for betting on Trump dropped once again to 2.4x from 2.5x last week and 2.6 the week prior.

The biggest mover was Kirsten Gillibrand.  The Democratic Senator from NY moved from 18th place to 12th place as her odds increased from 1.8% to 2.4%.  Her payout plummeted from 34.3x to 26.0x.  She was ranked #4 in this recent list of potential Democratic candidates.

Paul Ryan has been making steady progress as well.  He started in 12th place in the initial post elections list. He moved all the way up to 6th place last week and entered the top 5 this week.  His probability is now at 3.2% and his payout is down to 19.8X.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Cortez Masto 2020, Kaine 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Rubio 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Updated Odds: Trump Continues Big Lead; Pence, Obama, and Kaine Improve; Catherine Cortez Masto Debuts in Odds

Trump continued to have a large enough lead to have better odds than the next five candidates combined.  Although the probability dropped from 27.2% to 25.5%, it was a result of the pool of candidates increasing.  The payout actually dropped from 2.6x to 2.5x.

Although there wasn’t any change in the order of the top 6, Mike Pence and Michelle Obama improved.  Pence, who is in 2nd place, saw payout drop from 9.5x last week to 8.3x.  Obama, who is in 4th, had her payout drop from 13.7x to 12.2x.  A sign that money is coming in for both.

Tim Kaine also improved.  He moved from 9th place to 7th place.  His payout dropped from 26.6x to 22.4x.

One new debut this week was Catherine Cortez Masto, the D Senator elect from Nevada (first female Latina Senator).  She makes an impressive debut in 12th place at 26x (based on odds from 3 sites).  That seems high for a relative unknown ahead of bigger names like Amy Klobuchar, Marco Rubio, and Bernie Sanders.

Here are the full odds:

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Gowdy 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Updated 2020 Odds: Trump Continues to Have Significant Lead; Warren and Clinton Improve Odds; Trey Gowdy Makes Debut in 12th Place

Donald Trump maintained his healthy lead coming in at a probability of 27.2% while the next five candidates combined were at 25.8%.  Currently the average payout for betting on Trump is 2.6 to 1.

There was no movement in the top 6 candidates although Elizabeth Warren, who is in 3rd behind Mike Pence, improved her probabilty from 6.0% to 6.3%.  Every $1 bet her could potentially yield $11.1.

Hillary Clinton moved from 9th place to 7th place, the highest she has been.  Her payout is at 25.7 to 1.

There was one addition to the board with Trey Gowdy making his debut in 12th place with a payout of 29 to 1.  The South Carolina Republican Rep. seems to be increasing his profile and positioning himself as leading congressional oversight of Trump’s administration.

The betting odds overall got a bit more competitive between the different oddsmakers as evidenced  by Trump’s payout moving from an average of 2.5 to 1 last week to 2.6 to 1.  That should have meant his probability (as computed by combining with all other payouts) should have decreased.  Instead it increased from 26.6% to 27.2%.

Here are the full odds:

2020-election-odds-12-17-16

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 765