Trump continues to have a big lead but his odds have now dropped for five straight weeks. Back in the middle of January, Trump’s odds were at 26.9%. He is now at 24.5%. His payout is now at 2.6X, up from 2.5X. That is the tied for his highest payout since re-election.
Two movers in the top 10 were Cory Booker and Paul Ryan. Paul Ryan hopped over Bernie Sanders to get back to 7th place. His payout dropped from 26.9X to 25.6X. Cory Booker remained in 6th place but his payout dropped from 23.2X to 22.2X, his lowest since the beginning of January.
One debut this week was NY Mayor Bill de Blasio, who made his debut in 18th place. His payout is at 37.5X.
Donald Trump continued to be fairly steady at the top. His payout has ranged between 2.4x and 2.5x in each of the last 8 weeks. He has seen his probability go down a little bit. It is at its lowest in the last 5 weeks at 25.5%. He peaked at 26.9% five weeks ago.
It looks like Elizabeth Warren made the most of her being silenced on the Senate floor. She remains in 3rd overall , but her payout dropped from 10.7X the prior week to 9.8X. Her probability is now at 6.6% but remains behind Mike Pence’s 7.4% for second place.
Paul Ryan took a little hit with his payout moving from 26.4X to 26.9X. That allowed Bernie Sanders to hop over him for 7th place.
The big mover on the week, and of the last 3 weeks has been Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Four weeks ago, Zuckerberg was in 45th place with a payout of 107.3X. Reports started coming out about the possibility of him running. He immediately shot up to 32nd place with a payout of 80X. This week he was up once again now to 19th place with the payout decreasing to just 54.2X.
The bumpy start of the Trump Administration has not hurt Trump’s odds much. Over the last 4 weeks, the payout has barely moved from 2.4X to 2.5X and he still has a higher probability than the next 5.
Trump’s two main competitors in 2016 gained ground this week despite the Democrats wanting new leadership and the fact that both will be well into their 70s (like Trump) in 2020.
Hillary Clinton continued to be in 5th place but her payout dropped for the second straight week, this time to 21.8X from 23.1X.
Bernie Sanders rose from 10th place to 8th place and his payoff is now at 26.7X from 29X. He still only has a 2.4% probability.
The biggest mover was John Hickenlooper, the Democratic Governor of Colorado. He moved from 24th place to 19th place. His payoff moved from 66.3X to 56.3X. He is only at 1.1% probability.
